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  • Mike Paterson

Jury still out as another week closes

Friday 8 July 2022

More of the same as equities continue their up n down ride as do oil and gold albeit the latter making less of a recovery while the Greenback continues to dominate the landscape on the perception that the Fed is way ahead of the Central Bank curve, in theory at least. Some JPY demand returning as risk softens helping to cap cross and core pairs again. Euro under pressure still.

Still some conjecture whether Johnson can remain as caretaker PM and contenders now throwing their hats into the ring. Pound still a mixed bag amid variable cross-flows and the political uncertainty. US NFP jobs/wages data on the slate today at 12.30 GMT.

Be ready with your preferred levels/strategy, place orders and let the algos do the heavy work. Discipline is key as always but equally hesitation can often ruin a great idea.

GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2050 amid USD demand overall and GBPJPY supply returning but supported still by the EURGBP retreat. Rally re-sells duly placed as we continue to range. I remain poised to sell rallies. Timing as ever is crucial.

EURGBP: A cap this time at 0.8500 as the Euro sell-off continues and testing 0.8450 but now posting 0.8470. Jury remains out and plenty of second-guessing of the ECB and BOE still. I still think we'll see two-way pips overall. GBPJPY: Capping at 164.00 as the jury remains out and softer risk tones return with USDJPY running out of steam again too. I think the variable sentiment will help provide good two-way pips still for the moment.

EURUSD: Capped into 1.0200 now as the retreat continues further amid the general EUR supply to test 1.0130 this time but a decent hold so far albeit with limited bounce. Ukraine, Russian gas supplies and ECB remain the elephants in the room.

USDJPY: A hold of 135.30 in the latest retreat from the 136.20 area with dip demand still being seen for the moment and now 135.80 again. Rinse n repeat. EURJPY: Support at 137.50 but capping at 138.00 now amid softer risk tones.USDCHF: Support at 0.9720 now as EURUSD retreats but EURCHF capping and tempering gains. Jury remains out on SNB and amid variable risk but CHF still in demand as further tightening expected.EURCHF: Another retreat to 0.9875-80 amid the softer risk and EUR supply double-whammy after capping into 0.9920. Maybe witnessing some SNB support still but sellers will remain poised as I've been warning.

AUDUSD: Capping at 0.6860 and now testing 0.6820 amid softer risk AUDJPY supply and USD demand. GBPAUD currently trading 1.7500-1.7650. NZDUSD capping into 0.6200 and now in another retreat to 0.6150. GBPNZD bids into 1.9350 and 1.9400 now after capping into 1.9500.USDCAD: A cap around 1.3020 as oil price rises off its lows again but holding 1.2950 and on the rise amid some softer risk CADJPY supply and USD demand again.

Let's continue to be careful out there, and have a top weekend.

Interbank rates: 07.28 BST

GBPUSD 1.2000

EURUSD 1.0167

EURGBP 0.8467

GBPEUR 1.1808

GBPJPY 162.86

GBPCAD 1.5600

GBPCHF 1.1697

GBPZAR 20.1047

GBPHKD 9.3480

USDJPY 135.65

EURJPY 138.00

EURCHF 0.9900

EURHKD 7.9222

AUDUSD 0.6830

USDCAD 1.2995

USDCHF 0.9734

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