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  • Mike Paterson

Jury still out as another week opens

Monday 30 September 2019

A new week but the same old combination of the ongoing Brexit/Johnson debacle, US-China trade talks, Trump impeachment et al still loom and risk sentiment will remain variable. Reports on Friday that the US will limit investors portfolio flows into China were only partly softened by US Treasury Dept and the concerns remain with safe haven plays the preferred option still. Chinese markets closed for a week from tomorrow for their annual celebrations.


GBPUSD has failed to break back up through 1.2330 after holding 1.2270 on Friday and continues to range albeit on the back foot amid all the Brexit/Johnson shambles.EURGBP had a look above 0.8900 (GBPEUR below 1.1235) helped by the month-end Euro buying once again. We may well see some final demand today but price action at the moment suggests further moves higher will be limited albeit still underpinned. GBPJPY has been holding around 132.50 as core pairs both fluctuate after the risk-off drop from 133.20 on Friday.


I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Rinse and repeat.Still no reason to change my view any time soon as the current madness plays out but caution as ever is appropriate. Just ignore the noise, identify the trading ranges, and let the algos do the work.


EURUSD continues to find support ahead of large barrier option interest at 1.0900 but has equally failed to break above 1,0960 on the rally. Softer regional German CPI data this morning has made little impact given that it was largely expected. USDJPY also remains range bound with risk-off Yen demand helping to cap above 108.00 again but still failing to break 107.70 for the moment. USDCHF has also been ranging with EURCHF tightly bound too.


AUDUSD remains on the back foot as we wait on the RBA tonight (04.30 GMT) but buyers at 0.6735 still prevailing.RBA expected to cut rates but the risk may well be to the upside initially with markets already pricing in dovish tones.USDCAD still has good two-way pips to be had within 1.3200-1.3300 amid the variable oil/USD/risk sentiment.


Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.


Another spineless display from the soggy Shrimpers on Saturday in losing 1-0 and making a very average team look good. Grrrrr. Nothing spineless about the Welsh rugby boys though or Dina Asher-Smith in the World Champs 100m yesterday.


Have a good day/week out there one and all.


Interbank Rate 08.45 BST

GBPUSD   1.2302

EURGBP   0.8887

EURUSD   1.0933

GBPEUR   1.1253

GBPAUD   1.8228

GBPNZD   1.9682

GBPCAD   1.6287

GBPJPY   132.72

GBPZAR   18.7054

GBPHKD   9.5377

USDJPY   107.87

USDZAR   15.1776

EURJPY   117.94

EURCHF   1.0856

EURHKD   8.4765

AUDUSD   0.6750

USDCAD   1.3235

USDCHF   0.9930


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