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  • Mike Paterson

Jury still out on risk sentiment as another week closes

Friday 9 July

Decent fall in JPY and CHF pairs yesterday as the risk-off plays caught an additional puff of wind with JPY and CHF demand leading the way .


Equity and commodity markets have recovered a little poise with US Treasury yields firming too which has seen JPY supply return, USDJPY hold 109.50 and providing support across the cross and core pairs but rally sellers, including me, remain ever poised amid the fragile conditions.US-China tensions increasing again to keep an eye on.


ECB's Lagarde yesterday duly confirmed the new inflation goal of 2% and allowing overshoot as I reported yesterday and we saw a spike in EUR pairs but sellers were lurking as expected and we've seen some retreat again especially in EURCHF which has now tested 1.0830 with CHF demand very notable still.


ECB's Lagarde and BOE's Bailey on a panel discussion from 10.00 GMT amid the G20 meeting in Italy also in the mix today.


Patience and discipline in trading are key as ever and not being greedy as we continue to range tightly overall but good to see some greater levels of volatility return.


GBPUSD: 1.3820 resistance notable still but the bids into 1.3750 holding on more than one occasion so far.Some re-sells duly placed in the 1.3800 rally and pips banked in the retreat again. Rinse n repeat until broken. I remain a rally seller but still expecting dip demand. Keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.EURGBP: Yet another cap above 0.8600 as those 0.8620 offers impacted into the demand post-ECB inflation news.Bids still holding 0.8580-85 as we continue to range.GBPJPY: The slide continued amid the softer risk sentiment and testing 150.50-60 but boucing steadily back to look at 151.80 on the renewed firmer risk tones this morning. Rally sellers poised still when momentum fades.


I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. Risk to the downside though still overall.


EURUSD: A good hold of 1.1800 before a rally to 1.1860 on the ECB inflation announcement but sellers prevailing again and now testing 1.1825-30 and some pips banked from re-sells. EURCHF notably lower and providing supply too along with EURJPY capping. USDJPY: A good cap at the pivotal 110.20-25 now having held 109.50 in yesterday's retreat and subsequent rally as risk-on returns but making its mind up at 110.00 as I type. EURJPY: 129.60 held yesterday's steady retreat as risk-off plays accelerated but a decent rally now to 130.20 as risk tones firm again. Rally sellers poised still.USDCHF: CHF very demand notable again despite firmer risk tones (CHFJPY higher too) and will have the SNB ever vigilant as EURCHF sinks back further too. EURCHF: Notable retreat into 1.0820 but a line forming since at 1.0830 with SNB shadow/help ever present but rally sellers also poised still.AUDUSD: Another retreat from 0.7450 again but 0.7410 holding this time so far.USDCAD: Strong support area now at 1.2500 amid firmer oil price and CADJPY demand. 1.2580 sell interest capping yesterday .


Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a great week-end everyone.


Come on England !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Interbank rates: 08.00 BST

GBPUSD 1.3767

EURUSD 1.1826

EURGBP 0.8595

GBPEUR 1.1635

GBPCAD 1.7255

GBPJPY 151.48

GBPZAR 19.6874

GBPHKD 10.6759

USDJPY 110.08

USDZAR 14.2888

EURJPY 130.19

EURCHF 1.0836

EURHKD 9.1757

AUDUSD 0.7419

USDCAD 1.2543

USDCHF 0.9164




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