Jury still out on the Pound
Wednesday 13 March 2019
A bit of a damp sqib after the latest defeat for May/EU's Withdrawal Agreement due in no small part to the extreme uncertainty that still prevails as we wait on the No Deal vote later today. It's expected to be in the early evening again but the debate begins at 14.30 GMT following the Spring Statement (Budget) from UK Fin Min Hammond which understandably will play a small supporting role as today's latest theatre production plays out.
If MPs vote against a No-Deal Brexit, then a vote on extending Article 50 will take place tomorrow as I mentioned last night.If MPs support this motion then May will formally ask EU leaders for the Article 50 process to be extended. The EU27 must then unanimously agree to her request. As I keep saying we are a long way from any finishing line and markets are understandably cautious and fragile.
Yesterday's US inflation data came in a little softer than expected but to little consequence in the bigger scheme of things right now with the Fed already making it clear they're in no rush to hike again. Durable Goods today at 12.30 GMT may set off the algos but don't expect any fireworks.
We've seen GBPUSD hold 1.3050 support post-vote and then so far this morning fail into 1.3150-60 resistance.EURGBP has fallen back in the latest GBP rally to post lows of 0.8579 (GBPEUR up to 1.1657) after capping at 0.8647 (GBPEUR down to 1.1566) overnight.Good two-way business continues.
I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy and buy back in the dips (I'm consistent on that one at least) but I continue to see good two-way business with Brexit/No Brexit still casting a very large shadow.
EURUSD has found good sell interest at 1.1300 but still underpinned at these lower levels with good demand also at 1.1250 while USDJPY has also been tightly bound on uncertain USD and risk sentiment and has still failed to clear break out of 111.00-111.50.
USDCHF also remains underpinned but ranging tightly amid the steady EURUSD and EURCHF while AUDUSD is also tightly bound.USDCAD has retreated further on firmer oil prices/softer USD sentiment again. CAD/JPY demand also helping to put a bid into the Canadian% as I warned yesterday.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.
Have a good day one and all.
Interbank Rate 08.27 GMT