Lacklustre start to new week
Monday 15 November 2021
It's still a case of "what next" as markets and traders continue to second-guess the central banks with some fragile risk sentiment lurking amid rising COVID cases in Europe and political unease around Ukraine, Taiwan and elsewhere.
USD generally softer, equity markets and yields still firm overall, as is oil, and on the rise this morning with JPY and CHF core and cross pairs off their lows. Gold steady too reflecting some risk aversion still amid all the uncertainty. Little by way of data, speeches or options today to provide any real impetus.
GBPUSD: Support coming in at 1.3400 on Friday and again this morning after capping into 1.3450 on the Asian rally helped by firmer GBPJPY and softer EURGBP. I remain a rally seller overall while keeping track of EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.EURGBP: The pivotal 0.8520-25 area now providing some support after Friday's failure to hold above 0.8550 as the pair remains tightly bound for the moment. GBPJPY: That dip demand into 152.35 I noted on Friday did indeed hold and a decent rally before capping into 153.20 as the risk and USD juries remain out.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side albeit against the grain currently so being patient as ever. These markets are ever-fickle so good/tight position management essential.
EURUSD: Support at 1.1430 still halting the current decline but the bounce still less than impressive amid rising COVID cases, dovish ECB,and cross-flow action.USDJPY: Looks underpinned still at 113.75-80 but equally sellers around 114.00 amid some general USD supply. Large options potentially in play tomorrow. EURJPY: 130.50 support now gone after core pairs find rally sellers per my recent warning. USDCHF: Support coming in at 0.9180 with the SNB ever vigilant but equally sellers into 0.9220 again. EURCHF: 1.0530 still providing support with the SNB ever vigilant but those sellers in the rallies between 1.0560-80 still prevailing .
AUDUSD: 0.7300-20 now providing good support after Friday's break higher amid softer USD tones and that strong buy interest into 0.7280. Rally sellers poised 0.7360-80 now.USDCAD: 1.2520-25 now holding after the failure above 1.2600 as we saw the first retreat in a while amid softer USD tones and some CADJPY demand returning as oil based.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.50 GMT