Markets delicately poised still
Tuesday 6 November 2018
We've been seeing some general risk-on sentiment return as we wait on today's US mid-term elections with positive tones on trade coming out of China helping to settle a few nerves but the jury remains out. Meanwhile Brexit border issues still grab headlines and the Pound is feeling some love on a few hopeful tones.
I warned again yesterday that we should expect some GBPUSD dip demand still and having had softer UK services PMI data help fill the Sunday night gap from 1.2970 we've been up to 1.3086 this morning helped by GBPJPY demand and EURGBP supply. Decent sell interest still poised between 1.3080-1.3100 then more at 1.3120 and 1.3150 again.Immediate demand now around 1.3050, 1.3030, 1.3000, then 1.2970-80. Large option interest at 1.2920 rolling off today should will provide support should we get anywhere near. I remain GBP bearish overall and happy to jump on positive Brexit news still but not looking for too much of a retracement at the moment.
EURGBP has fallen again to test the 0.8730 (GBPEUR up to 1.1456) area that I've been mentioning and we're still there as I type but holding 0.8725 so far. More buyers into 0.8700 and 0.8675-80 with sellers now poised around 0.8750, 0.8780-85, 0.8800 and 0.8830 still.
EURUSD has rallied again helped by some EURJPY and EURCHF buying to post highs of 1.1425.Bids/support now at 1.1400, 1.1380, 1.1350 then 1.1330 and 1.1300 still where the barrier option defence still lurks. Sellers into 1.1430 still then 1.1450 again and 1.1480-00 still.
USDJPY remains underpinned snd the on-going dip demand I've been warning about is still evident now helped by the risk-on Yen selling.Immediate sell interest still around 113.50 with larger between 113.80-00.Bids/demand at 113.00 still then 112.80 and 112.50. I remain a rally seller buying back in the dips.
USDCHF has held comfortably above 1.0000 also helped by some risk-on Swiss Franc selling with EURCHF still finding support in the dips and climbing to 1.1472. Bids/support now at 1.1430 then 1.1400 and 1.1380 still with more behind at 1.1350 but sellers poised at 1.1480-00 still. USDCHF bids still at 1.0020 then 1.0000 and 0.9980 again with sellers still poised at 1.0060 then 1.0080-1.0100 again. Happy to trade both sides of the price action at the moment but preferring the dip buys still.
AUDUSD yesterday held 0.7180 support lines and has made steady progress on AUDJPY demand and the RBA leaving interest rates on hold and springing now major surprises. Immediate bids/support at 0.7200 then 0.7180 again and 0.7150 with sellers poised around 0.7250 again then 0.7275 and 0.7300 still. USDCAD had a wobble down to 1.3070 amid comments from BOC governor Poloz and some general US$ supply at the time but has also rallied to post 1.3116 with bids now at 1.3100 then 1.3080 and 1.3050 again with sellers poised between 1.3120-30 and 1.1360.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.
Have a good day out there one and all.
Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX