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  • Mike Paterson

Markets in risk-off mode as uncertainty increases

Wednesday 28 November 2018

Wobbly trade,commodity and equity price scenarios plus Brexit, Russian aggression versus Ukraine and the upcoming G20 talks are all combining to produce an increased air of uncertainty once again. US Fed Chair Powell up to the mic today at 17.00 GMT and also in the mix.

GBPUSD remains on the back foot on the Brexit-based wobbles and GBPJPY/GBPCHF selling but is still holding 1.2720-30 where i highlighted buy interest yesterday. End-of month EURGBP dip demand also helping to cap. Immediate offers now at 1.2760 and 1.2780 again having capped there then larger at 1.2800,1.2820 and 1.2850. Bids/demand still between 1.2720-30 then larger at 1.2700, 1.2680 and 1.2650 still.I remain GBP bearish overall and happy to jump on rallies then buy back in the dips while remaining core short, a strategy that continues to work well.

EURGBP has capped above 0.8880 with the Euro having Italy-led issues of its own but is currently finding support around 0.8850 with more bids behind that in the 0.8830 area I've mentioned a few times with that month-end BUBA demand in play still and likely to increase over next few days. Sellers between 0.8880-85 again then 0.8900 and 0.8920.

EURUSD has been in general retreat helped by the EURJPY and EURCHF selling and now broken down through 1.1300 support area to post lows of 1.1267.Immediate demand/support into 1.1250 still then 1.1230 and 1.1200 with sell interest building at 1.1300 and 1.1320 then 1.1350.

USDJPY climbed further to post 113.90 but rallies tempered by the risk-off Yen demand. Bids building now at 113.70 then 113.50 and 113.20 with offers into 114.00, 114.20 and the key 114.50 area. I remain a rally seller for the moment buying back in the dips.

USDCHF remains underpinned but similarly finds itself capped by risk-off Swiss Franc buying. EURCHF has fallen further to post 1.1268 and sellers remain poised even if the SNB may well look to "smooth" further declines.Bids/support now at 1.1250 and 1.1230 with USDCHF demand still at 0.9980 then 0.9960 and 0.9930. Sellers poised at 1.1300 then 1.1330 with USDCHF supply still at 1.0020 and 1.0050. I'm happy to trade both sides of the price action at the moment in these tight ranges.

AUDUSD has fallen again but is holding 0.7200-10 still as we wait on the outcome of this week's Trump/Xi trade talks at G20. Bids at 0.7220 again then the larger interest at 0.7200 and 0.7180 still with sellers at 0.7250 and larger lurking at 0.7280 still. USDCAD has rallied further amid the general USD demand with buyers now lining up at 1.3280 then 1.350 and 1.3230 with sellers poised between 1.3350-60 and 1.3380.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.

Last night the currently less than mighty Shrimpers of Southend United FC returned to the hallowed Hall to post a welcome win albeit struggling against 10 men for much of the game. I'll take the 3 points though and hope we can build from it.

Have a good day out there one and all.

Interbank Rate 07.43 GMT GBPUSD   1.2752 EURUSD   1.1288 EURGBP   0.8851 GBPEUR   1.1297 USDJPY   113.85 USDCAD   1.3312 USDCHF   0.9994 GBPAUD   1.7613 GBPCAD   1.6975 GBPCHF   1.2742 GBPHKD   9.8866 EURHKD   8.7515


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