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  • Mike Paterson

Markets making their mind up still

Wednesday 10 March 2021

Same areas of focus, same areas of indecision and uncertainty so we're seeing FX pairs back ranging and tightly bound in relative terms as yields retreat a little,equities and commodities rally a little and sending the Greenback lower again.

BOC interest rate decision and statement today at 15.00 GMT and eyes still on the ECB tomorrow of course. Overnight the RBA tried to jawbone the Aussie a little lower but with little effect.

As always though the FX jury remains out still so we need to focus on price action and value for money in our entry and exit levels. Discipline and patience needed more than ever in these ever fickle/fragile times.

GBPUSD held 1.3800 again yesterday but equally capped at 1.3925 ahead of decent offers at 1.3930 as per my update yesterday amd tweets before testing 1.3845-50 again in Asia/early Europe before heading higher again as USD sentiment turns lower this morning. EURGBP held 0.8550 by its fingertips yesterday and twice again this morning after failing at 0.8575-80 again as the GBPUSD rally outstrips the soggier EURUSD climb but back to 0.8565 again as I type. GBPJPY has found a new base around 150.60 with USDJPY and risk mostly underpinned but failing around 151.20 again with rally sellers on core pairs both poised still.

I remain poised to sell GBP into rallies as a jobbing preference but respecting dip demand still with price action ever fickle. Equally a case still for going long in the dips therefore as we continue to range at these lower levels. Patience, entry/exit level and not getting greedy remain key.

USDJPY is finding a cap now at 109.00 as USD sentiment turns softer but equally supported at 108.30 still amid the variable risk tones. Still wondering whether when/where Japanese corps are/ will be buying any remaining JPY in this rally for the usual year-end repatriation but we might be seeing some of that in the offers at 109.00 and above now. EURJPY continues to find a base into 128.80 and now 129.00 on some better risk sentiment but still finding a good cap at 129.50 as USDJPY retreat outpaces the EURUSD rally. EURUSD is finding decent 1.1860 support now but struggling to hold above 1.1900 amid the general EUR weakness. USDCHF fell through the support at 0.9320as EURUSD rallied but EURCHF fell further but held 0.9275-80 this time as EURUSD rally finds sellers as does the Euro generally with EURCHF back down testing decent support at 1.1030 per my tweet yesterday with the SNB ever-watchful.

AUDUSD duly capped at 0.7720-25 where I have tweeted about decent resistance/sell interest but still looks underpinned into 0.7675 for the moment. USDCAD failed at 1.2660 this time but equally found support into 1.2580 again as USD demand returned and with oil capping but now in retreat from 1.2680 this morning on the reverse moves.

Southend were awful last night and totally outclassed on all levels by a decent Tranmere side who won 0-2 and highlighted much about what is wrong with us atm. Sad times.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week everyone.

Interbank rates: 08.50 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3895

EURUSD 1.1897

EURGBP 0.8565

GBPEUR 1.1672

GBPAUD 1.8036

GBPCAD 1.7579

GBPJPY 150.97

GBPZAR 21.1638

GBPHKD 10.7728

USDJPY 108.71

USDZAR 15.2234

EURJPY 129.34

EURCHF 1.1052

EURHKD 9.2296

AUDUSD 0.7701

USDCAD 1.2657

USDCHF 0.9290

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