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  • Mike Paterson

Markets making their mind up still

Monday 4 July 2022

Mixed risk tones in a quiet start amid US Independence Day hols. Equities seen a decent rally but off their highs with Gold off its highs too after a strong rally on Friday and oil price coming lower again as I type. Back story remains the ongoing war in Ukraine and central banks grappling with recession fears vs inflation. It's the turn of the RBA tonight/tomorrow with expectations of a 0.25%-0.5% hike.

Be ready with your preferred levels/strategy, place orders and let the algos do the heavy work. Discipline is key as always but equally hesitation can often ruin a great idea.

GBPUSD: A good hold of 1.1975 in Friday's extended retreat but capping around 1.2125 on its decent rebound so far as 1.2050-60 resistance gave way amid renewed EURGBP supply and GBPJPY demand.I remain poised to sell rallies. Timing as ever is crucial.

EURGBP: A cap at 0.8580 in Friday's rally but holding 0.8600 so far this morning as jury remains out and plenty of second-guessing of the ECB and BOE still. Great two-way pips as I've been highlighting for a while now. GBPJPY: 161.50-60 holding Friday's extended retreat and now 163.00 in Asia this morning but capping into 164.30 again amid the mixed risk tones. I think the variable sentiment will help provide good two-way pips still for the moment.

EURUSD: Capped into 1.0450 on the rally from Friday's hold of 1.0360 and supported around 1.0400 since. Ukraine and ECB still remain the elephants in the room. USDJPY: Capped around 136.50 again after numerous holds of 134.75 amid the mixed risk tones.

EURJPY: Support coming in at 140.00 then 140.50 and testing 141.40-50 but capping as I type. Rally sellers poised still when sentiment turns softer. USDCHF: Support at 0.9540-50 still as 0.9980 area holds again on EURCHF amid some SNB some influence again. Sellers poised into 0.9630-50 now. Jury remains out on SNB and amid variable risk but CHF still in demand as further tightening expected and today's CPI data above forecast. EURCHF: Support notable at 0.9975-80 per my SNB comment above. Sellers will remain poised though.

AUDUSD: A strong rally from the extended low base as metals/risk firm a little and now testing 0.6850-60 after forming a base around 0.6800. GBPAUD failing at 1.7800 again but holding 1.7650 once more in the retreat amid the AUDUSD rally. NZDUSD also rallying strongly after holding 0.6150 on Friday. GBPNZD bids into 1.9400 now after breaking down through 1.9500 on the extended NZDUSD rally.USDCAD: Looking at 1.2850-60 again after Friday's failure above 1.2950 amid the firmer risk/oil tones but sellers still poised.

Let's continue to be careful out there.

Interbank rates: 08.55 BST

GBPUSD 1.2114

EURUSD 1.0423

EURGBP 0.8610

GBPEUR 1.1612

GBPJPY 163.91

GBPCAD 1.5580

GBPCHF 1.1620

GBPZAR 19.8020

GBPHKD 9.4375

USDJPY 135.36

EURJPY 141.12

EURCHF 1.0007

EURHKD 8.1218

AUDUSD 0.6852

USDCAD 1.2865

USDCHF 0.9600

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