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  • Mike Paterson

Markets on hot coals still as another week ends

Friday 10 May 2019

Still more questions than answers on Brexit, US-China trade talks, North Korea concerns, Turkey et al and we've seen some jumpy price action as headline-led algos keep traders on their toes.


GBPUSD broke down through the bids between 1.2980-00 to test the next layer at 1.2960 but has since tested the other end around 1.3030 led by some general USD supply but moreover EURGBP falling back from testing 0.8650 option expiry action on that pair and EURUSD option interest drove the Euro higher into expiry time, something I highlighted on Twitter .With the Euro still underpinned we've seen Cable cap and fall back to 1.2996.


EURGBP dip-buyers have been prevailing again helped by that large option interest but ran into sell interest around 0.8650 (GBPEUR support at 1.1560). GBPJPY retreated a little further to test the 142.30 support only to rally and test 143.30 resistance as risk-sentiment turned slightly more positive and USDJPY held 109.50 and rallied to test 110.00.Since then it's been business as usual and the Yen demand/GBP supply combo has seen a mobe back down to look at 142.50 support.


I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy and buy back in the dips amid all the global uncertainty/indecision including Brexit. Plenty more noise to come in the days/weeks ahead and the algos will continue to feed off the headlines.I hope you're making pips from my bearish stance.


We had loads of UK data at 08.30 GMT including latest GDP but it was all a bit of a non event and it's US CPI data at 12.30 GMT to keep in mind now but markets definitely focussed in other non-data areas.


EURUSD was duly held up by large option expiries yesterday at 1.1175 and staged a solid rally to test 1.1250 as the topside option interest between 1.1230 and 1.1250 held sway helped by that EURGBP option interest at 0.8740 and general USD supply prevailing at the time. A good and rapid move that we haven't seen in many sessions lately and would have suited dip-buyers and rally sellers alike but quite likely caught a few out as it failed to hold 1.1200.


USDJPY tested 109.50 support/bids before staging a risk-on rally to look at the 110.00 offers then retreating but not before giving a good chance for rally sellers like me to jump back in near 110.00, a level/strategy I had tweeted about on the move back up. USDCHF duly retreated in rapid fashion to test 1.0125-30 support as EURUSD made that equally rapid trip to 1.1250 and EURCHF held 1.1380.


AUDUSD also enjoyed a USD-led rally but had struggled to make as much progress as others. Then came the RBA Statement on Monetary Policy and despite bearish tones also said that A$ was at lower end of range and AUDUSD duly rallied further to test the 0.7020 offers where rally-sellers like me duly re-sold. Gotta love those algos eh?. USDCAD is still making its mind up and tightly bound between 1.3420-1.3520 as Canadian $ continues to get pulled around by CAD/JPY risk-related action and oil prices.


Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.


Another good night for Premier League teams to top off what has been an amazing week for football in general.


Have a good day/week-end out there one and all.


Interbank Rate 08.28 BST

GBPUSD   1.3002

EURUSD   1.1228

EURGBP   0.8635

GBPEUR   1.1580

GBPAUD   1.8576

GBPCAD   1.7498

GBPZAR   18.4895

GBPHKD   10.0828

USDJPY   109.74

USDZAR   14.2213

EURJPY   123.21

EURHKD   8.7071

GBPJPY   142.67

AUDUSD   0.6998

EURCHF   1.1388

USDCAD   1.3459

USDCHF   1.0143


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