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  • Mike Paterson

Markets wait on ECB and US inflation data

Thursday 10 June 2021

ECB today in focus although expectations of anything outside the box are small to say the least, but given the current attention/paranoia on inflation today's US CPI at 12.30 GMT, just as the ECB presser gets underway might help provide some action around that time, and hopefully after too given the current malaise.

Yesterday finished on some firmer USD tones which we're seeing continue this morning. The BOC left interest rates and policy on hold as expected and with understandbly cautious appraisal of current/future scenario.

Jury on the Greenback still out while risk sentiment remains fragile/variable but a little firmer this morning with Bitcoin steadying a little and equities underpinned ableit off their highs again.

As always in these fickle times ignore the noise and be careful with your trading as we continue to range tightly. Pick your preferred entry/exit levels and don't be greedy or over-analyze. Patience and discipline are key too of course. Let the algos do the work around CBs, data releases and headlines and take advantage of that as suits your interest. Trying to predict ahead of the event rarely works well.

GBPUSD: Another good cap between 1.4180-00 and now testing the other end at 1.4080. Fall being helped by EURGBP underpinned still and GBPJPY sellers prevailing as well as the general USD demand. Stand-offs on UK-EU talks over Northern Ireland not favouring the Pound either. I remain a rally seller but respecting the dip demand/range trading.EURGBP: Underpinned still below 0.8600 where we have large option interest today also helping to support and now back up through 0.8630 pushing GBPUSD lower too.GBPJPY: Capping at 155.40 and now 154.60-80 amid variable risk and softer GBP tones

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but still not getting over greedy with expectation on the retreats.

EURUSD: A good cap at 1.2220 per my tweets and where we knew offers were lurking having been underpinned by those large Put interest and now looking at 1.2150 support. Large option interest again today to keep in mind during the ECB circus.USDJPY: Holding 109.20 in the yesterday's retreat and some pips banked per my tweet but tightly bound still as we cap into 109.70.EURJPY: 133.00 now providing a base with core pairs both underpinned still but capping at 133.60 where I warned yesterday sellers were poised.USDCHF: Holding 0.8920 this time in its latest retreat where I noted some bids in a tweet as EURUSD capped but rallies still tempered by EURCHF supply but with the SNB ever vigilant/helpful. EURCHF: Capped into 1.0930 now after breaking down through and trying to hold onto 1.0900 as I type with SNB shadow ever present

AUDUSD: Another decent cap at 0.7760 after those Puts at 0.7750 rolled off but demand notable still at 0.7720-30 so some pips banked already. More options Puts at 0.7750 today but smaller in size.USDCAD: Holding 1.2080 this time and testing 1.2120-30 in the wake of BOC and generally firmer USD tones. CADJPY selling returning and also helping to support. Some large option interest tomorrow and in play at current levels.

England resume their cricket battle with New Zealand today at Edgbaston and we'll hope for some positive tones from them after the disappointing end/refusal to go for the win at Lords.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week everyone.

Interbank rates: 08.28 BST

GBPUSD 1.4082

EURUSD 1.2164

EURGBP 0.8636

GBPEUR 1.1576

GBPCAD 1.7067

GBPJPY 154.15

GBPZAR 19.2538

GBPHKD 10.9178

USDJPY 109.51

USDZAR 13.6690

EURJPY 133.17

EURCHF 1.0900

EURHKD 9.4314

AUDUSD 0.7731

USDCAD 1.2122

USDCHF 0.8963

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