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  • Mike Paterson

Markets wait on US NFPs

Friday 2 July 2021

The always over-hyped Non Farm Payroll data today at 12.30 GMT the main focus as markets continue to try and second-guess CBs on inflation. US Holiday on Monday and plenty of option contract interest rolling off today give some context to the extent of post-data moves should the figures be wide of expectations.

I don't do predictions as you know but let the algos do the work and be poised with your entry/exit levels.Don't forget it's not always about the headlines but the sub text and how much the data has been factored in prior. Wages also a key part of this data.

USD demand notable still as the numbers draw near but jury remains out still imho. Patience and discipline in trading are key as ever and not being greedy. OPEC+ meeting was postponed until today amid some disagreement and Bitcoin still looks a little fragile but clinging to 32-33k still. Lagarde speaks on a panel from 12.30 GMT at the same time NFPs hit the screens. UK opposition Labour Party got re-elected in a by-election with just a 323 majority but not a GBP mover despite it being against the current grain with Labour struggling generally.

GBPUSD: Bids at 1.3750 now broken in this latest retreat and pips banked again. I remain a rally seller but still expecting dip demand. Keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always per my tweets.

EURGBP: Underpinned at 0.8580 and helping to cap GBPUSD but still finding sellers above 0.8600 as we continue to range.GBPJPY: Ongoing Yen supply helping to underpin but equally rally sellers in core pairs sees 154.00 still proving a step too far so far but holding 153.40 now in latest retreat.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. Risk to the downside though still overall.

EURUSD: Now dropping through support at the key 1.1830-35 area amid the general USD demand and still looking soggy. I prefer to sell rallies still. Lots of option interest today in play through NFPs.USDJPY: Still on the foot now from general USD demand but some JPY supply returning and options interest nearby today helping to cap/contain. EURJPY: 131.50 forming a good base now but rally sellers still poised into 132.00 and 132.20. Option interest today 131.25-30 should help support.USDCHF: Underpinned at 0.9240 now as EURUSD retreats further with the SNB ever vigilant (EURCHF anchored) and general USD demand prevailing.Sellers at 0.9280-00 still poised aand capping rallies so far. I prefer to buy dips again but good two-way business expected again.EURCHF: Holding 1.0960 now with SNB shadow/help ever present but sellers poised around 1.0980 still too.

AUDUSD: Capped into 0.7510 and now testing 0.7450 amid the USD demand but found support around 0.7500 again yesterday helped by those options before falling after per my tweet. A bit more interest today at 0.7495-00 too if we get closer. USDCAD: Strong support area at 1.2360-80 I've been highlighting has held again and now 1.2400 forming a decent base helped by the general USD demnd and oil prices capping with OPEC in focus. Keep an eye CADJPY as always. Options interest in play too today.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a great weekend everyone.

Come on England !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Interbank rates: 08.10 BST

GBPUSD 1.3748

EURUSD 1.1827

EURGBP 0.8602

GBPEUR 1.1624

GBPCAD 1.7114

GBPJPY 153.48

GBPZAR 19.9035

GBPHKD 10.6588

USDJPY 111.63

USDZAR 14.4653

EURJPY 132.02

EURCHF 1.0963

EURHKD 9.1697

AUDUSD 0.7454

USDCAD 1.2447

USDCHF 0.9270

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