Markets waiting on further clues
Thursday 14 January 2021
Coming up today we have the highly anticipated speech from US Federal Reserve Chair Powell at 17.30 GMT then more on fiscal policy from President-elect Biden around 00.15 GMT with market talk of a $2trln package, both preceded by the Minutes from the Dec ECB meeting at 12.30 GMT.
The jury is still deciding whether the old trend has resumed or just another move in the ever-fickle world of Forex as risk and USD sentiment continues to vary. Either way, we're seeing some good two-way business so keep your focus on the price action and key levels breaking/holding and don't over analyze or look too far ahead.
GBPUSD yesterday duly capped around 1.3700 but equally finding support at 1.3620 as we continue to range tightly.
EURGBP saw furher downward momentum but held 0.8880-85 (GBPEUR sellers at 1.1260) as GBPUSD capped around 1.3700 but equally failing into 0.8930 (1.1200 support) on the return journey. GBPJPY has found a base at 141.60 again after cappinmg into 142.30 amid the mixed risk and USD tones.
I still have a naturally bearish stance on GBP overall and remain poised to sell into rallies but respecting current demand again. Equally going long in the dips proving productive too so take your pick. Just don't get greedy still.
USDJPY duly based into the solid support at 103.50 but equally finding sellers at 104.20-30 again while EURJPY duly failed around 126.80 amid some general EUR selling and the USDJPY rally fading but has held 126.20 on the retreat.
EURUSD has held 1.2130 again on its retreat since capping at 1.2220 yesterday but rally sellers still poised.USDCHF still finding support into 0.8850 with the SNB ever watchful but now failing into 0.8900 (where I noted offers building yesterday) as EURCHF drops through 1.0800 amid the general EUR selling.
AUDUSD found support this time with decent bids at 0.7720 bids but tightly bound still as we head back up through 0.7750 as I type.USDCAD failed into 1.2750 but holding 1.2670 so far on its latest retreat this morning amid some softer oil/firmer USD tones.
There's little doubt that we live in strange times and rationale was thrown out the window a long time ago so as we look at trading opportunities to begin the year it's even more important not to over analyze but trade the price action with discipline and patience.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.29 GMT