Month-end bringing mixed Greenback tones still
Wednesday 30 November 2022
Lots of two-way business again in the past 24 hours as markets try to make their mind up about the China COVID restrictions and second-guess the CBs. As I wrote yesterday " Month-end USD flow signals are mixed.... with some EUR demand notable"
Some USD supply returning this morning with equities and oil both looking firmer again with gold also underpinned. Yes, deja vu from this time yesterday. Geopolitical risk in Ukraine still lurking too, quite apart from all the CB second-guessing. Fed's Powell speaking today at 18.30 GMT.
Remember that conjecture and second-guessing should stand to one side on data and news releases. Focus on the price action and let the algos do the heavy lifting/dropping. The important thing is to identify your preferred risk/reward entry/exit levels prior.
GBPUSD: A good hold of 1.1950 again after the break down through 1.1980 which had provided decent support for most of yesterday amid good 2way trading with caps around 1.2050 where we have large option interest today. I remain bearish overall and poised to re=sell as we rally back up thru 1.2000. EURGBP: Finding good support at 0.8615-20 now amid the month-end EUR demand but capping at 0.8660. I expect the two-way business to continue as jury remains out on both currencies and outlook. GBPJPY: A good cap at 166.65 this time as core pairs both find rally sellers but holding 165.50 a few times too. I would still expect two-way business as markets remain ever-fickle but with sellers to prevail overall again as I've been warning in recent times.
EURUSD: A decent hold at 1.0320 this time on general EUR month-end dip demand. after capping into 1.0400 yesterday Should still see some mixed business and I remain a rally seller overall as my preferred side. USDJPY: Seems 138-139 range to be in place now amid the mixed USD tones and some good two-way business.EURJPY: Capping at 144.00 this time but still holding 143.00 amid the general EUR demand. Expect more two-way business. USDCHF: 0.9550-60 resistance capping amid some firmer USD tones and EURCHF dip demand again overall. SNB ever-vigilant. Testing 0.9500 as I type as some USD supply returns. EURCHF: A hold around 0.9800 again amid the firmer EUR tones but finding 0.9880 a step too far and we continue to range.
AUDUSD: Holding 0.6660-80 this time in the retreat from 0.6740 and posting 0.6723 as some USD supply returns.I remain a rally seller as my preferred side/strategy but some caution required if China sentiment improves. NZDUSD supported at 0.6200 again after yesterday's cap at 0.6250. USDCAD: Capping at 1.3650 this time after a good rally from 1.3450 amid the oil price retreat and USD demand but the reverse of that playing out as I type.I think we'll see some two-way business still overall as markets remain ever-fickle.
Let's continue to be careful out there.
Interbank rates: 08.50 GMT