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  • Mike Paterson

More of the same

Wednesday 17 August 2022

Some good two-way jobbing opportunity still with US Dollar demand overall but the jury remains out with equities continuing their joy ride although off their highs as I type.


Oil in retreat again and gold off its highs and JPY supply again this morning on the better risk tones overall and USDJPY posting new recent highs. RBNZ announced a 0.5% rate hike with hawkish tones as expected and this morning's UK CPI/RPI report has sent the Iinterest rate hawks into a mini-frenzy but not a great back-story for the UK or the Pound. US Fed FOMC Minutes out tonight for all the second-guessers.


GBPUSD: Capped at 1.2150 after the UK inflation reportand now 1.2084 as I type in the reality check retreat. I will stand poised for more of the same as we continue to range with patience a virtue still. EURGBP: Testing 0.8380-85 support post-UK data but now bouncing and targetting old support of 0.8415-20 where offers now wait. I still think we'll see two-way opportunity. GBPJPY: Now based around 161.50 and chewing through 163.00 offers helped by some firmer risk tones and USDJPY staging a decent bounce from 134.25.


EURUSD: Ranging tightly amid the variable EUR cross-flows and some sizeable option interest over the next 36 hours as I've warned. Rally sellers still poised.USDJPY: Another dip yesterday after failing at the strong tech res area of 134.68 tbut equally good dip demand into 134.00 this time and longs will be happy with that too still as we post 134.84 on the rebound. EURJPY: Forming a base now around 136.30-50 on the better risk tones but with sellers poised still whenever sentiment turns. USDCHF: Capping at 0.9520 as EURUSD finds some dip demand and EURCHF steady with the SNB ever vigilant with CHF demand still notable helped by rate hike expectations. EURCHF: 0.9650 support now with SNB smoothing but some inherent CHF demand still capping rallies too.


AUDUSD: Good support currently into 0.6965 after the firmer USD retreat from 0.7025. GBPAUD now holding 1.7250 as the Pound gets a lift and testing 1.7375. NZDUSD capping at 0.6365 this and testing 0.6320 again on the RBNZ buy-rumour/sell-fact play. GBPNZD holding 1.9100 now in the latest bounce and testing 1.9200 as NZD retreats. USDCAD: Supported at 1.2825-30 and on the rise again Capping amid the firmer USD/softer oil double whammy again.


Let's continue to be careful out there.


Interbank rates: 08.39 BST

GBPUSD 1.2091

EURUSD 1.0154

EURGBP 0.8397

GBPEUR 1.1908

GBPJPY 163.02

GBPCAD 1.5578

GBPCHF 1.1509

GBPZAR 19.9623

GBPHKD 9.4260

USDJPY 134.78

EURJPY 136.85

EURCHF 0.9664

EURHKD 7.9157

AUDUSD 0.6976

USDCAD 1.2872

USDCHF 0.9517


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