More of the same as another week closes
Friday 18 February 2022
Ukraine still dominating the headlines and mixed risk plays helping to contain FX ranges as I warned yesterday amid all the unknowns but a little better sentiment on reports that Blinken and Lavrov are due to meet next week. Equity markets are off their lows but failing to rally too far while oil is nears its lows but remains underpinned overall still. Gold higher again and remains solid amid the uncertainty but failing above 1900 first time around.
I repeat yet again that it's not for us to determine what the outcome over Ukraine will be but the guessing game will continue and keep the headline-algos jumping on hot coals. Meanwhile conjecture over Central Bank rate hikes continues to add more uncertainty into the mix. Large option expiry interest today across a few pairs too as I've been highlighting.
As ever, a case of not over-analysing or second-guessing but keeping your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs and identify ranges and what levels present value for money. Patience invariably a virtue but don't confuse patience with being stubborn either in entry or exit.
GBPUSD: A good hold of 1.3580 then 1.3600 as the pair continues to find support overall and post 1.3640 from softer EURGBP and GBPJPY climbing off it lows. BOE rate hike expectations also helping to underpin.EURGBP: Duly finding support at the key 0.8330 after falling through 0.8350 but finding sellers into 0.8360 with very large option interest at 0.8350 very much in play. Mixed risk sentiment helping to contain as the uncertainty remains.
GBPJPY: Finding support at 156.60 as risk tones firm up and now challenging 157.00 helping to underpin core pairs. Caution still required atm amid risk-off/on uncertainty.
EURUSD: A good hold of 1.1350 now but 1.1380-00 sellers still poised with very large option interest today helping to contain along with mixed risk and USD tones.USDJPY: Old support around 114.80 kicking in again and helping to hold the latest retreat.Risk-on JPY supply hadding to the support. EURJPY: Capped at 131.20 this time but support coming in at 130.60-80 as JPY supply once again outstrips any EUR selling.USDCHF: 0.9200 support back in after a dip to test the next layer at 0.9180 as EURCHF holds 1.0450 as risk firms. SNB ever vigilant but rally sellers poised too still. EURCHF: Holding 1.0450 support but sellers still poised into 1.0480-00.
AUDUSD: Some risk-on AUDJPY and AUDCHF demand now helping to support at 0.7180 again as the rollercoaster risk ride continues with sellers poised 0.7225-50. USDCAD: Capping at 1.2720 and now looking at 1.2675 bids on the underpinned oil price and generally softer USD tones with some CADJPY supply too. Option interest in play nearby.
Offers: 1.2700, 1.2720-25, 1.2750, 1.2780-85, 1.2800, 1.2830, 1.2860,
The mighty Shrimpers are back at the Hall for some Friday night football, storms permitting, and looking to stretch our unbeaten run to 10 games. Bring it on!!
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a great weekend.
Interbank rates: 08.04 GMT