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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

More of the same as fragile conditions prevail

Thursday 25 April 2019

It's still a mixed bag out there at the moment but we're seeing some ongoing US$ buying overall as a theme again, with the USD index rising to highs not seen since May 2017, albeit with a touch of risk-off sentiment helping to cap USDJPY and USDCHF rallies

GBPUSD has continued to fall and test bids into 1.2880. EURGBP selling yesterday amid the softer Euro tones generally helped hold up the retreat but the demand I've highlighted around 0.8635 has helped cap Cable rallies helped by fresh GBPJPY and GBPCHF supply. Cross party Brexit talks continue to show little evidence of any progress being made as per printed programme and with May still fighting her own party too the market is happy to sell the Pound again.

EURGBP has been tightly bound after that retreat into 0.8630-35 (GBPEUR up to 1.1585) as EURUSD continued to fall but remains underpinned with month-end demand ever nearer on the horizon again.

I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid the Brexit debacles and general USD demand currently prevailing. Plenty more noise to come in the weeks ahead and the algos will continue to feed off the headlines. Keep an eye on my MikePatersonFX Twitter feed where I try to update when at my desk.

EURUSD has fallen through key 1.1170-80 support having failed into 1.1230 area and that triggered stop-loss and fresh shorting interest and we've been down to 1.1145. USDJPY rallied up through 112.00 to once again test the 112.20 area I've been highlighting helped by short covering to avoid large carry costs for the long Japanese Golden Week holiday which begins on Monday. We've seen a nice retreat since helped by risk-off sentiment and after BOJ offered little of note once again at their interest rate policy meeting but still looks underpinned into 111.65.

USDCHF remains underpinned but fallen back as EURCHF found sellers again amid the general EUR retreat  but finding expected dip support around 1.1380 with the SNB ever-watchful.

AUDUSD has retreated further to test 0.7000 support/bids having failed to climb back above 0.7050 helped by some AUDJPY supply. USDCAD had a brief rally from 1.3450 to look st 1.3520-30 offers/res after the BOC left rates on hold and slashed growth forecasts but fell back only to understandably find dip support back into 1.3450-60 and is climbing back through 1.3500 as I type.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

I wish you good trading and I hope my updates/tweets are helping.Let's continue to be careful out there and don't get greedy. Feel free to contact me about discounted 1-2-1 mentoring rates if you need some clarity on current moves/guidance on FX strategy.

Have a good day out there one and all.

Interbank Rate 08.11 BST

GBPUSD   1.2910

EURUSD   1.1153

EURGBP   0.8638

GBPEUR   1.1574

GBPAUD   1.8408

GBPCAD   1.7421

GBPZAR   18.6737

GBPHKD   10.0091

USDJPY   111.75

USDZAR   14.5017

EURJPY   124.75

EURHKD   8.6479

GBPJPY   144.39

AUDUSD   0.7015

EURCHF   1.1385

USDCAD   1.3491

USDCHF   1.0204

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