More of the same uncertainty
Thursday 21 April 2022
More BOJ/government jawboning but USDJPY struggling to stay down for too long despite some generally softer USD tones that's seen GBPUSD looking at 1.3080-00 and EURUSD back above 1.0900 helped by some ECB rate hike talk, notably from De Guindos.
Equities remain supported in the dips as do gold and oil after their recent retreats. Meanwhile the atrocities in Ukraine sadly continue as we enter a new phase with tensions escalating further.
BoE’s Mann is due to speak at 13:00 GMT then BoE Governor Bailey’s speech at 16:30 GMT from the IMF meeting that also has Fed's Powell and ECB's Lagarde speaking at 18.00 GMT then BOC's Macklem at 23.00 GMT.
GBPUSD: A hold around 1.3000-20 this time amid some USD supply and GBPJPY dip demand but sellers, including me, still poised into 1.3080-00 after the break of 1.3050-60. I remain a rally seller overall while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. Good option interest at 1.3050 today in play. EURGBP: Still holding 0.8280 and up through the 0.8320-25 offers to test 0.8365 this morning after the hawkish De Guindos comments. GBPJPY: Support at 167.00 still as the general JPY supply returns but failing at 167.80 with core pairs finding rally sellers for the moment.
EURUSD: A break and hold of 1.0820 yesterday triggered some further gains and another boost this morning amid the ECB rate hiker talk and general USD supply to post 1.0935. Option interest in play at 1.0900-05 today. USDJPY: Holding 127.50 in the latest retreat and still looks underpinned but jury remains out. EURJPY: Support at 139.50 now and testing 140.00 on the Euro rally this morning. USDCHF: Holding 0.9450-60 in the latest retreat amid softer USD tones and EURUSD rally but support from EURCHF continuing its rally and up through 1.0350 with the SNB casting a shadow still. EURCHF: A solid rally through 1.0300 amid the EUR love and with the SNB lurking in the dips. Rally sellers still poised but coming second for the moment.
AUDUSD: A hold of 0.7400-20 and another decent rally amid the general USD supply and now helped by the return of AUDJPY demand as USDJPY rallies off its lows again but failing at 0.7460. NZDUSD holding 0.6760 in latest retreat from the high of 0.6815 amid the CPI data. USDCAD: Broken down through the 1.2550-70 support and a solid decline to 1.2460 after another retreat from 1.2640 amid firmer oil prices and softer USD tones for the moment. Two-way business still expected amid all the uncertainty but volatility has definitely returned after those recent tight ranges. Option interest in play today/tomorrow.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.18 BST