New month, same uncertainties
Thursday 1 April 2021
Yes folks, time really is flying and we enter a new month not sure whether recent trends and month-end flows are here to stay or just another aberration in the ever-fickle world of Forex. Yesterday's JPY supply was notable again into the EOM London fix and I hope the steer helped. Pound pairs enjoying buy interest so far this morning.
Some firmer risk sentiment this morning as equities rally a little after a retreat in Asia in the aftermath of Biden's latest fiscal package but some notable selling of AUD and CHF as we head into the long Easter weekend and we can expect more book tidying as the day progresses. Oil in focus too as the latest OPEC+ meeting gets underway.
Lots of variable/fickle flows expected still with some good-size option interest in play too so don't over-analyze. Just pick your preferred entry/exit levels and don't be greedy.
I will be posting updates tomorrow and Monday but don't expect any Tweets as I have Easter holiday plans with my family now that lockdown rules are a little looser.
GBPUSD: Enjoyed the month-end USD sales and GBPJPY demand to pop up above 1.3800 on a couple of occasions but those 1.3820 sellers did the job on capping with rally sellers, including me, poised as ever. Holding 1.3745 so far in the retreat though.EURGBP: Still ranging in these lower levels with 0.8500-40 now our lines in the sand for the moment.EUR still looking fragile amid COVID/vaccine concerns.GBPJPY: Enjoyed the JPY supply and GBPUSD rally yesterday but duly ran into sellers at 152.80. Base forming at 152.30 now though and rallying again as I type.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but still not getting greedy on the retreats. Good two-way pips to be had for the moment.
EURUSD: 1.1700-05 holding still then 1.1720 but struggling to get back above 1.1760 as the Euro remains fragile amid COVID/vaccine concerns.USDJPY: EOM JPY supply kept the pair underpinned but sellers prevailing at 110.80-85 but now need to see how the Yen fares in these early days of a new month.EURJPY: Finds itself underpinned still and rising amid core pair dip demand and firmer risk tones.
USDCHF: Still finding a support line at 0.9400 and now posting new recent highs amid the firmer risk sentiment but also EURCHF on the rise with the SNB ever watchful of course and ready to help.EURCHF: A good base at 1.1050 and the break of 1.1080 triggering fresh demand/stops as EURUSD finds dip demand too.
AUDUSD: Capped at 0.7630 and now down through those 0.7580 bids accelerating a move to 0.7535 before finding some fresh demand.USDCAD: Found itself in rapid retreat to 1.2540 into the EOM fix with those USD sales and firmer oil tones in play. Traders will be keeping an eye on today's OPEC+ meeting.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Enjoy the long week-end everyone.
Interbank rates: 08.40 BST