Perky Pound as rate cut hopes fade further
Thursday 23 January 2020
The Pound yesterday encountered more BOE rate-cut doubters as some better business investment data and the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement finally passing through parliament provided the backdrop for a decent rally. Tomorrow's UK flash PMI data will either confirm or reverse the move.
Meanwhile risk sentiment continues to be flaky as China puts Wuhan in lock-down amid increasing numbers of Coronavirus and we've seen JPY and CHF demand with softer equities and oil but gold failing to take advantage atm.
GBPUSD broke up through 1.3080 and then 1.3100 in a rush to post highs of 1.3152 but sellers up there capping the rally and I duly resold. EURGBP has broken down through 0.8480 to 0.8430 (GBPEUR up to 1.1864) and that has helped propel the Pound higher too but there's GBP sellers down there.GBPJPY found a base around 143.30 and rallied to 144.48 as the Pound rallied and USDJPY held 109.80 but with that line breaking, 1.3150 holding and risk sentiment softer we've seen a retreat back to 143.67.
I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but continue to see some good two-way business as we continue in these tight ranges and the BOE rate-cut conjecture continues. Hopefully my early warnings about not being convinced on BOE have helped give you a good steer too.
EURUSD has remained tightly bound as cross-play interest provides both sellers and buyers still and contained today by large option expiry interest at 1.1100-10 with some smaller interest at 1.1075-85. USDJPY has finally broken down through the good line at 109.80 helped by the risk-adverse plays and that failure above 110.00 with many getting excited about a break higher but 110.30 remained intact. It rarely pays to anticipate. EURJPY has also broken down through that 121.50 line I've highlighted but similarly dip buyers on core pairs remain poised to help contain ranges with the JPY demand and EURUSD failing to rally too far. USDCHF failed above 0.9700 with EURCHF back on the backfoot as risk sentiment sours again.
AUDUSD has based around that demand at 0.6830-35 and put the Chinese/regional coronavirus concerns to one side as better jobs data also sent the pair up to test 0.6880 offers/resistance. USDCAD has enjoyed a good rally on the BOC leaving interest rates on hold as expected but offering some dovish tones for the Canadian $ and amid softer oil price too we've been up to 1.3172.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.
Have a good day out there one and all.
Interbank rates: 08.35 GMT