Positive start for the Pound as General Election looms ever nearer
Monday 9 December 2019
A new week and one that sees UK voters heading to the polling stations again on Thursday in a rare Winter election. As Monday opens so we're seeing the Pound underpinned and posting new recent highs as the polls point to a Tory majority government and the blinkered algos continue to not look at the alternatives but traders are going with the flow. Buy rumour sell fact? I still wouldn't rule it out.
Elsewhere the US-China uncertainties continue in a week that also sees the latest interest rate/policy decisions for the US Federal Reserve and ECB on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
GBPUSD has now posted new 7-month highs of 1.3182 with EURGBP now finally falling through 0.8430 and 0.8400 to post 0.8393 lows. Pound rally tempered a little by some GBPJPY supply but underpinned still. EURGBP remains on the back foot helped by some general Euro supply with EURUSD trading tightly still but capped by option expiry interest again around 1.1100. GBPJPY has retreated again after once more failing above 143.00 and has been back testing bids at 142.50.
Rally-selling GBP remains my preferred strategy overall but, as I've been warning for a while, I respect that some others (and the algos) see it differently at the moment. Remember we're ranging still so don't get too greedy whatever your bias. I continue to stay poised and sell when upside momentum fades but respecting the current demand still.
EURUSD is holding above 1.1050 but capped into 1.1100 with another EUR 2bln in expiries in total rolling off today between 1.1070-80 and 1.1100-05.USDJPY has broken down through 108.50 on some softer risk sentiment but still not racing anywhere in a hurry for the moment with large expiry interest between 108.50-70 today. USDCHF continues to find dip demand helped by the EURUSD supply with EURCHF still ranging and the SNB being ever vigilant.
AUDUSD has found itself tightly bound still between 0.6820-50 amid the variable risk and USD sentiment while
USDCAD remains underpinned after the NFP/Canadian jobs reports double-whammy sent it sharply higher on Friday but tightly bound since.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.
Sad times continuing for the soggy Shrimpers who threw away a 2-0 halftime lead at Bristol to lose 4-2. A total of 6 hours driving to witness another capitulation. Not funny being a Southend fan these days but we live in hope, even if that is all we have left.
Have a good day/week out there one and all.
Interbank rates: 08.35 GMT