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  • Mike Paterson

Pound in a Brexit whirl still

Thursday 15 November 2018

Last night the UK Cabinet passed May's Brexit proposal but that was always the least of the PM's,and UK's problems. Since I started typing/re-typing this update we now have the resignation of Brexit Secretary Raab sending the Pound sharply lower.

Once again there's been too many moves to itemize here but in the last 24 hours GBPUSD has now posted lows of 1.2793, from highs of 1.3072 and lots of retreats and rallies in between amid all the Brexit shambles and reality checks as I've warned here for a long time and in tweets last night (follow me @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX if you're not already). Without wishing to hype this already over-hyped situation there is now serious risk of the UK being thrown into constitutional crisis with little chance of May's deal being passed by parliament. To add to the Pound's woes latest UK retail sales data just out has come in well under expectations

Chaos abounds this morning and levels/orders are being wiped out at a stroke but latest feedback tells me immediate offers now around 1.2850, 1.2880, 1.2900, 1.2920 and 1.2950 then larger around 1.2980-00 with more sellers poised behind that into 1.3020 then 1.3050 again after yesterday's breach. Bids/demand building now around 1.2780 ( being tested as I type - Keep up at the back!) with larger into 1.2750,1.2730 and 1.2700, then 1.2685, 1.2665 and 1.2650. I remain GBP bearish overall and happy to jump on rallies then buy back in the dips while remaining core short, a strategy that continues to work well.

EURGBP has also understandably been on a Brexit roller-coaster ride of its own and now posting highs of 0.8839  (GBPEUR down to 1.1314). Buyers now poised around 0.8800, 0.8780 and 0.8750 with sellers at 0.8850, 0.8880, 0.8900, 0.8920 and 0.8950

EURUSD has been underpinned still helped by some softer USD$ sentiment and we've been up to 1.1368 before falling back this morning to now post 1.1292 Bids/support still at 1.1280 and 1.1250 then larger at 1.1220, 1.1200 and 1.1185 with sellers at 1.1330, 1.1350 and 1.1380

USDJPY has fallen further with risk-off Yen demand still playing out. Immediate sell interest at 113.60 then 113.80, 114.20 and 114.50 still with buyers poised at 113.20-30 and 113.00. I remain a rally seller buying back in the dips.

USDCHF has also retraced but off its lows helped once again by some EURCHF dip demand. Bids/support still around 1.1330 and 1.1300 with sellers poised at 1.1380 and 1.1400 again with USDCHF bids at 1.0030  and 1.000 and sellers around 1.0080,1.0100, 1.0120 and 1.0150 still. I'm still happy to trade both sides of the price action at the moment but preferring the dip buys.

AUDUSD has failed into 0.7300 again but continues to find dip demand for the moment. Immediate bids/support now at 0.7230 and 0.7200 with sellers poised at 0.7280, 0.7300 and 0.7320. USDCAD has remained underpinned but tightly bound by USD and oil price sentiment changes. Bids now at 1.3200, 1.3180 then 1.3160 still with sellers poised around 1.3250 again then 1.3270 and 1.3300 still.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.

Have a good day out there one and all

Interbank Rate 08.40eeee 09.07eeee 09.42 ! GMT GBPUSD   1.2808 EURUSD   1.1316 EURGBP   0.8829 GBPEUR   1.1324 USDJPY   113.34 USDCAD   1.3212 USDCHF   1.0049 GBPAUD   1.7687 GBPCAD   1.6935 GBPCHF   1.2875 GBPHKD   9.9300 EURHKD   8.7690


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