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  • Mike Paterson

Pound in a whirl again

Wednesday 14 October 2020

This morning greets Pound bears with good news as GBP generally takes another hit on Brexit concerns for a deal as we approach tomorrow's 15 Oct deadline plus the latest COVID lockdown economic impact. Yesterday's comments from BOE's Bailey still not ruling out negative interest rates also helped to give it a shove lower and that momentum has continued.


GBPUSD has been down to 1.2865 this morning helped by the 07.00 GMT algo-programmed trade machine which we see most days and tends to kick on from the prevailing trend at that time. EURGBP has once again run into sellers at 0.9120-25 but equally holding 0.9100-10 on the retreat so far. As I type though we are seeing GBP rally to 1.2934 and 0.9080 as headlines tell us the UK will not walk away from Brexit talks immediately.


Elsewhere the US Election continues to grab some headlines and the jury remains out on just what a Biden win might mean for markets if he was to get over the line, which is by no means guaranteed.


Today's raft of Central Bank speakers includes ECB's Mersch and Lane at 11 and 12 GMT then US Fed's Clarida and BOE's Haldane at 13.00 GMT, with BOC's Lane at 14.30, Fed's Quarles 19.00 and RBA's Lowe at 21.45 GMT.


GBPUSD currently on the rise to 1.2934 after those earlier 1.2863 lows with 1.2850 a decent line of support in the sand. Patience has been a virtue as FX markets remain fickle as ever and I hope my ongoing steer has helped. EURGBP found support at 0.9040-60 this time around after an initial fall to 0.9020 as GBPUSD rallied to 1.3060 but short-lived and we saw a break through 0.9080-00 to test 0.9120-25 again  but currently looking at the 0.9080 pivot area once again. Keep up at the back!


I stay poised to sell GBP rallies as my preferred side and buy back in the dips as ever.  Patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I still see dip demand though with markets and risk sentiment still in a state of uncertainty overall.Brexit remains the very big elephant in the room.


USDJPY failed at 105.60 again but equally holding 105.25-30 once more amid the general USD demand/risk uncertainty while EURJPY has also seen a decent retreat with EURUSD finally breaking down through 1.1770 but support now around 123.60. EURUSD rally sellers like me prevailing again after breaking down through 1.1770 but finding decent support at the next decent line around 1.1725-30 where we've based for the last week.USDCHF duly found support below 0.9100 as EURUSD capped but sellers prevailing above 0.9150 also with EURCHF steady for the moment but SNB casting its shadow still.


AUDUSD has found support at 0.7150 after a good retreat from 0.7200 into option expiry time yesterday as per my tweets while USDCAD still remains tightly bound amid the variable/fickle risk/USD/oil tones and failed above 1.3150 again but holding 1.3100-10 still.


Markets are ever-fickle so don't forget to contact me if there's areas of trading these markets that you might need some further help with.


Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.


Interbank rates:  08.45 BST

GBPUSD   1.2880

EURUSD   1.1737

EURGBP   0.9107

GBPEUR   1.0978

GBPAUD   1.7982

GBPCAD   1.6927

GBPJPY   135.87

GBPZAR   21.2878

GBPHKD   9.9330

USDJPY   105.42

USDZAR   16.4987

EURJPY   123.75

EURCHF   1.0733

EURHKD   9.0482

AUDUSD   0.7167

USDCAD   1.3136

USDCHF   0.9142


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