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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Pound retreats on wobbly risk plays and Brexit concerns

Monday 3 February 2020

Friday saw a concerted sell-off in USD at the 4pm GMT fix as the last month-end flows were executed but with risk sentiment still on the back foot and with the fix moves overdone we've seen some retracement since Asia opened.

The Pound has been in retreat all morning so far amid fears of an impasse between the UK and EU on post-Brexit trade talks with both sides due to unveil their plans in the next couple of hours.

China's markets fell sharply, as expected with the PBOC trying, and failing, to set a mood of calm with a series of measures after the extended Lunar New Year break with coronavirus continuing to spread and we have another month beginning on the back foot.

GBPUSD made steady gains on the USD Friday fix sales rising from 1.3140 to 1.3180 in a rush and then taking out the 1.3200 offers to post 1.3210 but rally sellers, including me, have once again taken good advantage. Currently posting 1.3114 as I type.EURGBP had a look below 0.8400 amid the general Pound demand but has since posted 0.8445 while GBPJPY has failed above 143.00 again and now posting 142.25 amid the softer risk sentiment and GBP retreat.

I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but continue to see some good two-way business as we continue in these tight ranges. Rinse n repeat.

EURUSD enjoyed a decent rally on the USD fix sell-off but has failed around 1.1100 with some decent option expiries today (1.5bln) between 1.1075-00.USDJPY broke down through 108.50 to test 108.30 on the USD sales but those bids holding the fall so far but upside capped by the softer risk sentiment prevailing.EURJPY has also retreated to test 120.00 as sellers remain poised on both core pairs. USDCHF has found support at 0.9630 after Friday's sell-off that's been helped by EURCHF also retreating to post 1.0670 amid the softer risk too.Expect the SNB to remain ever vigilant.

AUDUSD has remained on the back foot but hanging in there around 0.6680-00 for the moment amid the Coronavirus concerns and with the RBA rate decision looming large tonight.USDCAD looks underpinned still but trading tightly between 1.3200-1.3300 amid varying oil and risk sentiment.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

Glorious occasion at the hallowed Hall on Saturday as our youngsters did the Club proud and showed spirit and passion that's been sadly lacking from most of our senior players all season. Remember the name of 21-year old Elvis Bwomono who scored the 96th minute winner and has been voted Player of the Month a record 5 months in succession.

Have a good day/week out there one and all.

Interbank rates: 08.22  GMT

GBPUSD   1.3135

EURUSD   1.1074

EURGBP   0.8429

GBPEUR   1.1859

GBPAUD   1.9630

GBPCAD   1.7403

GBPJPY   142.48

GBPZAR   19.5719

GBPHKD   10.1719

USDJPY   108.46

USDZAR   14.9453

EURJPY   120.12

EURCHF   1.0670

EURHKD   8.5874

AUDUSD   0.6691

USDCAD   1.3248

USDCHF   0.9635

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