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  • Mike Paterson

Pound under pressure still

Thursday 19 July 2018

We've seen GBP sellers prevail again amid the on-going shambles over the UK government's handling of Brexit and softer than expected inflation/retail sales data.

Yesterday's data confirmed the BOE forecasts that inflation would peak toward the end of last year but the algo boxes had fun picking up on the headline numbers and down came the Pound again.

GBPUSD fell to test the barrier option interest at 1.3000 but found it a step too far on the first time of asking as is often the case. The subsequent rally though failed to clear the 1.3080-3100 resistance area and with USD demand prevailing we were  already heading lower when this morning's soggy UK Retail Sales data gave it an additional kick down to take out the 1.3000 barrier and post 10-month lows of 1.2982 just above the 1.2980 bids I highlighted yesterday. There is further option interest of around £2 billion rolling off today so we might expect the range to be contained until 15.00 BST expiry time as both sides do battle Immediate support/buying interest still around 1.2980 then 1.2950, 1.2930 and 1.2900.Sellers now poised around 1.3020 then 1.3050 and larger between 1.380-3100 still.Keep selling the rallies.

EURGBP remains underpinned and after this morning's soggy UK data has posted fresh recent highs of 0.8940 (GBPEUR down to 1.1185).Sellers still at 0.8950 then 0.8980-9000. Buyers now at 0.8900 then 0.8875-80 and 0.8850. Keep buying the dips.

EURUSD has fallen again on the US$ buying to test 1.1600 again.Buyers lined up now around there still then more into 1.1580. Sellers poised at 1.1630 now still between 1.1650-60 and 1.1680 then 1.1700-20.

USDJPY remains underpinned but still finding sellers as risk-off sentiment generally prevails and Japanese exporters always happy to offload into the rallies.Buyers around 112.80 again then 112.50 and 112.30 still. Sellers still at 113.20 and 113.50 where another barrier option lays in wait. USDCHF has crawled back above 1.0000 and looks underpinned still but has safen-haven CHF buyers helping to cap.

AUDUSD yesterday held the good bids/support around 0.7350 that I've been highlighting and rallied well to post 0.7444 helped by strong jobs data, but with China looking to devalue the Yuan again the knock-on effect has seen USD demand and AUD selling to test 0.7350 again. More bids at 0.7320 and 0.7300 still where large barrier option interest lurks. Immediate sell interest between 0.7380-0.7400 and 0.7450 still as I've warned for a while now too. After a decent dip USDCAD has rallied a on a strong US$/lower oil price double whammy again. Sellers at 1.3260, 1.3280 and 1.33300 with buyers now poised at 1.3200, 1.3180 and 1.3160

Fickle and volatile markets prevailing at the moment so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.

Have a good day out there one and all.

Interbank Rate 09.40 BST GBPUSD   1.3002 EURUSD   1.1612 EURGBP   0.8929 GBPEUR   1.1197 USDJPY   112.95 USDCAD   1.3216 USDCHF   1.0012 GBPAUD   1.7665 GBPCAD   1.7185 GBPCHF   1.3017 GBPZAR   17.4070 GBPHKD   10.0789 EURHKD   9.0014


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