• Mike Paterson

Range trading back while jury remains out

Friday 23 July 2021

We've seen some mixed tones in equities, oil and US bond yields so variable risk tones and a mixed bag in USD generally as these current moves are still risk, not USD, driven.Forex pairs ranging tightly again while the jury remains out but some firmer risk tones noted as European trading gets underway.

The ECB decision and press conference came and went fairly much as expected with reference to the new inflation parameters but not a lot else to impress the hawks and the mixed views from the ECB gave EUR pairs some good algo-led moves but ultimately the message was more dovish than expected and we've seen the Euro weaker since.

Patience and discipline in trading are key as ever and not being greedy even with some greater levels of intra-day volatility returning. Still some good two-way pips to be had amid the mayhem so picking your moment and levels is more important than ever.

GBPUSD: A good cap building at 1.3780 and some re-sells placed on both occasions with pips banked in the dips below 1.3750 while keeping some shorts. I remain a rally seller while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.

EURGBP: 0.8540 holding the retreat after a cap around 0.8585 as EURUSD failed at 1.1820-30 and that's helping to cap GBPUSD too.GBPJPY: 151.20 now a decent base as risk tones remain mostly firm and USDJPY finds that strong demand at 110.00 I've been highlghting in the order board. Sellers prevailing at 151.80 though so far once risk softens in these ever fickle times

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.

EURUSD: 1.1750-60 holding again after the cap at 1.1830 yesterday.USDJPY: 110.00 still providing good support amid the generally firmer risk tones and large bids but equally sell interest around 110.40 per my tweets. EURJPY: 129.60 providing the platform again after a brief look lower but sellers poised at the old resistance line of 130.20 still.USDCHF: 0.9160 then 0.9180 holding as EURUSD fell from 1.1830 but with EURCHF holding 1.0815-20 again with the SNB ever vigilant. EURCHF: A good hold of 1.0815-20 this time with SNB shadow/help ever present after rally sellers prevailing at 1.0840

AUDUSD: A good cap at 0.7400 after a further rally helped by AUDJPY demand but then testing 0.7375 again where we had those large options as I've warned all week. No coincidence. A small rally since but tightly bound for the moment.USDCAD: Capping at 1.2600 after the rally from 1.2530 but holding 1.2550 all amid the variable oil price/risk/CADJPY price action.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.05 BST

GBPUSD 1.3750

EURUSD 1.1770

EURGBP 0.8560

GBPEUR 1.1683

GBPJPY 151.72

GBPZAR 20.2857

GBPHKD 10.6565

USDJPY 110.33

USDZAR 14.7670

EURJPY 129.85

EURCHF 1.0830

EURHKD 9.1206

AUDUSD 0.7364

USDCAD 1.2573

USDCHF 0.9204

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