Range trading prevails amid month-end flows and firm risk sentiment
Monday 30 November 2020
There's still some good two-way business to be had as we continue to see some USD supply prevailing in addition to the month-end flow models which are still pointing to USD sellingrelated to equity hedging needs. Citibank refer to an "above average need to sell USD today". Don't forget that much may have been done already into last week's US holiday but ther Spot date fix was quiet so keep your eyes on the London 16.00 GMT fix today for the last knockings.
Against that USD supply though we have some firmer risk sentiment still to provide some core pair support amid the JPY and CHF supply and that's keeping ranges tight still. Weekend Brexit talks produced little of note except more can-kicking and talk of another temporary deal with timelines extended.An idea I mentioned in updates a little while ago. Talks continuing this week so we still need to watch out for any notable headlines. Meanwhile the Pound has lost some ground across the board but the Euro is still very much puffing out its chest.
GBPUSD back in the slightly lower 1.3280-1.3380 range, maybe even 1.3260-1.3360 (month end USD flows make me cautious to drop it too far) and some buy backs duly made again in the latest retreat which has been helped by some usual month-end EURGBP demand. EURGBP has held the 0.8950 support line this time around amid the general EUR demand and softer GBP and now challenging 0.9000 again helping to push GBPUSD lower. I remain a dip buyer overall.GBPJPY capping around 139.00 this time as GBP weakens.
I stay poised to sell GBP rallies as my preferred side and buy back in the dips as ever.Patience continues to be a virtue and rally-selling in GBPUSD is still bringing some reward but entry level key as always. Definitely still expecting dip demand as I've warned for a while now. Brexit still the large elephant in the room.
USDJPY found support into 103.80 again (buy backs duly made) but has capped at 104.30 again where re-sells have been placed again. EURJPY has found some solid support now at 124.00 and then 124.20 amid the generally firmer risk and EUR plays. EURUSD continues to find support, this time at the higher pivotal line of 1.1920 but equally failing at the freshly extended high of 1.1985 for the moment with the significant 1.2000 within grasp but traders cautious of ECB comments to try and cap it.USDCHF remains on the back foot amid the softer USD and underpinned EURUSD tones with EURCHF steady but also underpinned with the SNB still ever watchful.
AUDUSD has held 0.7350 again but failing above 0.7400 where we have large expiries today. Buy-backs/re-sells duly made again per my ongoing strategy.USDCAD failed above 1.3000 and now retreated back down through 1.2980 on the general USD supply/CAD JPY demand but holding 1.2970 again as I type.
Markets are ever-fickle so don't forget to contact me if there's areas of trading these markets or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week.
Interbank rates: 08.34 GMT