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  • Mike Paterson

Range trading still as another week gets underway

Monday 25 January 2021

A quiet start to the week with risk sentiment ever fickle and the Greenback finding a few sellers again but nothing of real note.

A few CB speakers today including the ECB's Lane, the loudest voice on Euro levels, at 13.45 GMT with Lagarde at 16.15 and BOE's Bailey at 17.00 GMT. US President Biden is back up to the rostrum at 20.45 GMT with conjecture still on the levels of fiscal stimulus to come as we wait on the latest US Fed decision on Monday.

As I keep highlighting Forex pairs are still ranging overall as the various uncertaainties continue and the jury remains out so keep playing what's in front of you and don't over analyze.

GBPUSD duly held 1.3650 but the rally has failed at 1.3725 and now back down through 1.3675 as I type. EURGBP failed into the 0.8920 resistance area (GBPEUR support 1.1210) but holding 0.8870-75 on the retreat (GBPEUR sellers 1.1275) and now becoming a bit of a line in the sand.GBPJPY found a base at 141.80 but capping at 142.20-30 again.

I still have a naturally bearish stance on GBP overall and remain poised to sell into rallies but respecting dip demand still with price action ever fickle. Equally a case still for going long in the dips though as we continue to range. Patience and not getting greedy remain key.

USDJPY found a base around 103.50 contained by more option interest that I highlighted on Twitter but equally still can't get back over 104.00.EURJPY found support at 126.00 amid some firmer EUR and risk tones but failed at 126.50.

EURUSD based at 1.2150 but failing at 1.2185-90 again and now testing the lows once more after some soggy German IFO data as I type. USDCHF held 0.8840 with the SNB ever watchful and the EURUSD rally capping once again at 1.2185.

AUDUSD duly held the decent support at 0.7700 as risk turned a little firmer and the Greenback weakened but failing this time at 0.7750 and some re-sells duly made.USDCAD found support at 1.2670 this time but equally failing at 1.2740 but holding around 1.2700 on the retreat where we also have some option interest today.

As we look at trading opportunities to begin the year it's even more important not to over analyze but trade the price action with discipline and patience.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week everyone.

Interbank rates: 08.26 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3704

EURUSD 1.2175

EURGBP 0.8883

GBPEUR 1.1257

GBPAUD 1.7725

GBPCAD 1.7407

GBPJPY 142.19

GBPZAR 20.8210

GBPHKD 10.6061

USDJPY 103.73

USDZAR 15.2385

EURJPY 126.30

EURCHF 1.0782

EURHKD 9.4410

AUDUSD 0.7733

USDCAD 1.2700

USDCHF 0.8856

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