Reality check risk-off sentiment returns
Friday 22 May 2020
US-China tensions and COVID-19 fallout concerns both escalating as I've been warning and the reality check has once again produced some further negative risk sentiment. Equities and oil both falling as has Gold after news that Russia had made no purchases in April all combining to see JPY and CHF demand again with core pairs as well as the crosses all making a decent retreat.
GBPUSD duly failed into 1.2250 as per my tweets. We've now seen 1.2200 and 1.2180 break after soggy UK Retails Sales data this morning and helped lower by the GBPJPY supply to post 1.2163. EURGBP failed at 0.9000 (1.1110) again as EURUSD also failed once more at 1.1000 but finding a few buyers below 0.8950 atm with 0.8930 ( 1.1200) still a decent line in the sand.GBPJPY has fallen once again which obviously suits my core short positions but some USDJPY demand again at 107.30 has seen support building at 130.60.
I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always.
USDJPY has held 107.30 again after capping at 107.80 once more. Rinse n repeat.EURJPY held 118.50 and has broken back down through 117.80 on the risk-off plays and core pair rally supply but finding a little demand at 117.00-20 as I type with EURUSD holding 1.0900. EURUSD failed once again into the strong 1.1000 offers/resistance but has found good demand at 1.0900 on the retreat with the jury still out on the EU Recovery Fund.USDCHF found support into 0.9650 as EURUSD retreated from 1.1000 again but rallies tempered by EURCHF giving up gains above 1.0600 again. No doubt the SNB are still "smoothing".
AUDUSD tried to hold 0.6550-60 but then broke down amid the increased risk-off plays ( mostly AUDJPY supply) to head down below 0.6520 this morning. Chinese retaliatory measures still in focus. USDCAD held 1.3900 and has rallied on the softer oil/firmer USD combo to post 1.4030 as I type.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Make sure you get some rest at the week-end.
Interbank rates: 08.45 BST