Reality check time as markets wobble again
Monday 20 September 2021
Yes folks, it's time for the happy-clappy brigade to step back and let the reality-check commence as the global fragility and uncertainty on so many levels comes to the front of the crowd once again. I've been warning for a while so I hope the steer has helped.
Steep declines in equities, treasury yields and commodities have created another wave of risk-off plays in forex markets and that's seen JPY and CHF demand pushing cross and core pairs notably lower, nor least of which GBP.
Amid all this uncertainty remember that patience and discipline in trading are key, as ever, and not being greedy.
GBPUSD: A steady decline since failing above 1.3800 on Friday and now posting lows of 1.3663, not seen for almost a month. Pips banked in the retreat at various levels per my tweets. Retreat helped by GBPJPY selling and EURGBP rallying in that wake. I remain a rally seller while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.
EURGBP: A solid hold of 0.8520-30 and now back up through 0.8550 as GBPUSD decline outstrips EURUSD which is finding good support into 1.1700. GBPJPY: That old 150.80 support line has now broken on the latest risk-off retreat and now testing 150.00 as I type. I had been warning that sellers still poised when risk sentiment fades so I hope the steer helped.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk-sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.
EURUSD: 1.1780 provided a good cap and some re-sells duly placed per onging strategy. Good bids/support at 1.1700 holding the retreat so far. Large option interest building there too later in the week. USDJPY: Testing 109.60-65 again as I type after failing above 110.00 and falling again amid the softer risk tones and rally sells duly place per ongoing strategy/variable risk. EURJPY: Rally failed at 129.55-60 amid the softer risk tones as I had warned and now posting fresh recent lows at 128.45. Good sellers poised now 128.80-00. USDCHF: The rally in this pair that I highlighted last week CHF has now extended to 0.9330 with a new base at 0.9300 as EURUSD retreats and with the SNB ever vigiliant even if EURCHF has capped again on the softer risk tones. EURCHF: Capping at 1.0940 and now 1.0900 providing a line in the sand again as I type with SNB shadow ever present. Dip buying still the preferred trade but not greedy in the rallies.
AUDUSD: Capped at 0.7320 helped by risk-off AUDJPY supply after being held up by that large option interest at 0.7300 and 0.7325 on Friday and we now post lows of 0.7227. USDCAD: Good support at 1.2700 and now 1.2750 amid the softer risk/oil price tones and hence CADJPY selling again. Option interest in play this week again.
Sad news yesterday re Greavsie and John Challis aka Boycie. A reminder to us all that being six feet above ground is always preferable to being six feet under despite the bad times we might have. Talking of which Southend blew it again. Hey ho.....
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.43 BST