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  • Mike Paterson

Risk off as oil retreats again

Tuesday 21 April 2020

Reality check still going on with oil prices since the OPEC+ deal to cut production. Markets now rightly gauging, as I've warned too, that reduced demand in the months/years ahead coming out of this mess is the bigger picture. Crazy headlines re negative prices but all filtering through into FX and other markets.

Nothing is going to be "normal" ever again. Algos are as confused as the rest of us hence the limited FX ranges for the moment.Just trade what's in front of you until it breaks but, as always as I teach in my 1-2-1's, keep your ranges in focus beyond that.

GBPUSD still capping at the 1.2485 line I warned about yesterday and now back below 1.2400. For me it's still a case of re-sells duly made upstairs again and profit taken on this latest retreat while staying core short. EURGBP duly held 0.8700 but also 0.8750 as per my warnings here and on Twitter. GBPJPY falling again on the softer risk sentiment but now finding support around 133.00 but capped around 134.00 .

I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. Equal argument still for buying dips though atm too as I expect to see some decent two-way business for the moment still.

USDJPY testing support around 107.30 again as I type on the softer risk hviong capped at 107.80. EURJPY fell again to look at 116.20 after capping into 117.00 on the uncertain outlook still. EURUSD has held 1.0880 but holding 1.0820 still on the latest retreat. USDCHF finding a few dip buyers again at 0.9660 with EURCHF holding the next line at 1.0500 and the SNB still lurking.

AUDUSD has failed at 0.6350 and retreated on the risk-off plays but equally can't get below that 0.6280-85 which looks a little pivotal to me now.  USDCAD has finally reacted to the latest oil price retreat and rallied to test 1.4220 after holding 1.4050.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.32 BST

GBPUSD   1.2410

EURUSD   1.0834

EURGBP   0.8732

GBPEUR   1.1451

GBPAUD   1.9673

GBPCAD   1.7613

GBPJPY   133.22

GBPZAR   23.5397

GBPHKD   9.6215

USDJPY   107.38

USDZAR   19.0020

EURJPY   116.32

EURCHF   1.0513

EURHKD   8.4016

AUDUSD   0.6306

USDCAD   1.4195

USDCHF   0.9702

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