Risk-off sentiment returns
Friday 21 January 2022
Growing concerns over Russia invading Ukraine and markets ever second-guessing central banks has led to another wobble in risk sentiment late in NY trading and continued through this morning albeit a little steadier as I type.
I've warned repeatedly that we live in a fragile world and my strategy of selling rallies but being patient for decent entry levels has once again proved prudent so I hope it's helped steer you..
As always, don't over-analyze or second-guess but keep your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs and identify recent ranges to see whether we hold or break and what levels present value for money. Patience will invariably be a virtue but don't confuse patience with being stubborn either in entry or exit.
GBPUSD: A good cap at 1.3650-60 yesterday and a decent retreat since to 1.3560 helped by GBPJPY selling, EURGBP buying and softer UK retail sales data not to mention he ongoing Partygate enquiry. I remain a rally seller overall and ever poised while respecting dip demand.EURGBP: Another hold below 0.8320 and rebounding strongly through 0.8350 (GBPEUR down to 1.1970) on the risk-off EUR demand but sellers lurking still.GBPJPY: 154.40 support now on the latest risk-off retreat after failing above 155.50 and USDJPY pushing down through 114.00.
EURUSD: Finding some dip demand at 1.1360 this time afte failing to make topside headway through 1.1340 and now testing 1.1400 again amid some general EUR risk-off demand.USDJPY: 114.00 support now history amid yesterday's softer USD tones then risk -off JHPY demand but holding 113.60 for the moment. EURJPY: 128.50 now the new support line after the fall through 129.50 but now the usual stand-off as we see both risk-off EUR and JPY demand but EUR winning the race as we see 129.21 again as I type. USDCHF: 0.9140 support now gone after a failure at 0.9180 but with SNB ever vigilant amid the general cCHF demand which is kicking EURCHF lower, bucking the EUR trend elsewhere. EURCHF: SNB ever vigilant as the slide resumes to look at 1.0340 with CHF demand outstripping EUR buying elsewhere. Sellers now poised 1.0380-00.
AUDUSD: Back down through 0.7200 on the risk-off retreat after failing into 0.7280.USDCAD: 1.2445-50 support yesterday again and now up through the 1.2525 resistance amid softer risk/oil CAD selling.
The mighty Shrimpers back at the hallowed Hall tonight and hoping our recent league form continues. A new striker too. Bring it on !!!
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.48 GMT