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  • Mike Paterson

Risk-off sentiment returns

Friday 21 January 2022

Growing concerns over Russia invading Ukraine and markets ever second-guessing central banks has led to another wobble in risk sentiment late in NY trading and continued through this morning albeit a little steadier as I type.


I've warned repeatedly that we live in a fragile world and my strategy of selling rallies but being patient for decent entry levels has once again proved prudent so I hope it's helped steer you..


As always, don't over-analyze or second-guess but keep your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs and identify recent ranges to see whether we hold or break and what levels present value for money. Patience will invariably be a virtue but don't confuse patience with being stubborn either in entry or exit.


GBPUSD: A good cap at 1.3650-60 yesterday and a decent retreat since to 1.3560 helped by GBPJPY selling, EURGBP buying and softer UK retail sales data not to mention he ongoing Partygate enquiry. I remain a rally seller overall and ever poised while respecting dip demand.EURGBP: Another hold below 0.8320 and rebounding strongly through 0.8350 (GBPEUR down to 1.1970) on the risk-off EUR demand but sellers lurking still.GBPJPY: 154.40 support now on the latest risk-off retreat after failing above 155.50 and USDJPY pushing down through 114.00.


EURUSD: Finding some dip demand at 1.1360 this time afte failing to make topside headway through 1.1340 and now testing 1.1400 again amid some general EUR risk-off demand.USDJPY: 114.00 support now history amid yesterday's softer USD tones then risk -off JHPY demand but holding 113.60 for the moment. EURJPY: 128.50 now the new support line after the fall through 129.50 but now the usual stand-off as we see both risk-off EUR and JPY demand but EUR winning the race as we see 129.21 again as I type. USDCHF: 0.9140 support now gone after a failure at 0.9180 but with SNB ever vigilant amid the general cCHF demand which is kicking EURCHF lower, bucking the EUR trend elsewhere. EURCHF: SNB ever vigilant as the slide resumes to look at 1.0340 with CHF demand outstripping EUR buying elsewhere. Sellers now poised 1.0380-00.


AUDUSD: Back down through 0.7200 on the risk-off retreat after failing into 0.7280.USDCAD: 1.2445-50 support yesterday again and now up through the 1.2525 resistance amid softer risk/oil CAD selling.


The mighty Shrimpers back at the hallowed Hall tonight and hoping our recent league form continues. A new striker too. Bring it on !!!


Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.


Interbank rates: 08.48 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3569

EURUSD 1.1335

EURGBP 0.8353

GBPEUR 1.1970

GBPJPY 154.68

GBPCAD 1.7003

GBPCHF 1.2373

GBPZAR 20.5292

GBPHKD 10.5710

USDJPY 113.97

EURJPY 129.23

EURCHF 1.0354

EURHKD 8.8313

AUDUSD 0.7192

USDCAD 1.2523

USDCHF 0.9135



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