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  • Mike Paterson

Risk-on sentiment prevails as Ukraine crisis lessens

Wednesday 16 February 2022

JPY and CHF seling still underpinning cross pairs and their cores as better risk tones continue following yesterday's news Russia were allegedly returning some troops back to base as I reported here but Western intellgience has seen no evidence yet. Equity markets are on the rise again while oil continues to make its mind up but underpinned overall still. Gold nudging higher again amid the uncertainty after a good hold around 1845 in yesterday's risk-on retreat.

As I warned yesterday the uncertainty continues. It's not for us to determine what the outcome over Ukraine will be but the guessing game will continue I'm sure. Meanwhile conjecture over Central Bank rate hikes continues to add more uncertainty into the mix. Latest headline inflation data from the UK this morning came in above expectations which suggests further rate hikes in the pipeline but consensus remains that we'll see another 0.5% but not much more.

GBPUSD: A good hold of 1.3520 yesterday helped by some growing option interest there tomorrow, and now support coming in at 1.3540 amid some GBPJPY demand and USD supply. Inflation data underpinning but rate hike already priced in. Sellers still poised 1.3565-80 and 1.3600. EURGBP: Duly finding sellers around 0.8400 still after its extended rally through 0.8380 but equally finding buyers back down there in subsequent retreats as the uncertainty remains. GBPJPY: Finding support at 156.50 now as we head back over 157.00 on renewed risk appetite.Caution still required atm amid risk-off/on uncertainty.

EURUSD: A good hold of 1.1340 now before another rally this morning to test 1.1400 amid some softer USD tones but capped by some risk-on EUR supply. USDJPY: Finding support now around 115.50 after the risk-on JPY-supply saw a break of 115.60 but facing 115.80 resistance still again. EURJPY: A solid hold of 131.00 sees a decent rally to 131.85 as JPY supply outstrips any EUR selling but jury remain out. USDCHF: 0.9220-30 support still holding as EURCHF rallies too but another failure above 0.9270 sees a dip to 0.9250 on softer USD tones. SNB ever vigilant but rally sellers poised too. EURCHF: Holding 1.0500 now with SNB shadow casting its impact and now rallying to 1.0540 as risk-on CHF supply returns but sellers poised now into 1.0565-80.

AUDUSD: Some risk-on AUDJPY and AUDCHF demand once again helping to lift to test 0.7180 and the AUD demand still outstripping GBP as I type to send GBPAUD lower through the 1.8950 support in an extended retreat to test 1.8880.

USDCAD: Capping at 1.2780 again and now 1.2680 on the firmer-risk CADJPY demand and softer USD tones.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.17 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3561

EURUSD 1.1379

EURGBP 0.8390

GBPEUR 1.1919

GBPJPY 156.88

GBPCAD 1.7195

GBPCHF 1.2535

GBPZAR 20.4497

GBPHKD 10.5632

USDJPY 115.68

EURJPY 131.63

EURCHF 1.0530

EURHKD 8.8617

AUDUSD 0.7178

USDCAD 1.2687

USDCHF 0.9249

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