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  • Mike Paterson

Risk-on sentiment returns as a new month begins

Monday 1 April 2019

Welcome to another week, another month and British Summer Time.We have more indicative Brexit votes today as lawmakers once again try and reach some sort of consensus (albeit not binding) but after last week's abject failure and Friday's defeat for May's divorce deal yet again we're not going to hold out much hope of too much progress. Meanwhile elsewhere on the planet some upbeat data from China has helped settle equity/commodity markets and we've seen some risk-on sentiment return in this ever fragile and fickle world of Forex.


GBPUSD had a brief look below 1.3000 on Friday but buyers at 1.2980 helped provide a base and with GBPJPY/GBPCHF demand returning and month-end EURGBP demand now out the equation, plus USD off its earlier highs generally we've seen a solid rally to post 1.3086 before running into the usual rally sellers, including me.


EURGBP has tested fresh offers at 0.8630 before retreating amid the Pound demand but currently waning there too and now back above 0.8600 (GBPEUR down to 1.1627) as I type.


I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy and buy back in the dips. To repeat, I continue to see/respect the current two-way business as the Brexit chaos takes fresh twists and turns.


If any companies on this list would like to take advantage of my 1-2-1 FX education services to help guide you through the current Brexit minefield then do contact me for further details.


EURUSD found support into 1.1200 helped by large option expiry interest on Friday while some month-end USDJPY demand from importers helped underpin the pair again on Friday with the year-end repatriation having seemingly all been done prior understandably. Risk-on sentiment has since seen the pair rise to 111.19 before capping.


USDCHF has also found itself underpinned still as EURUSD remains tightly bound and EURCHF finds support with the SNB remain ever-watchful. AUDUSD has found itself supported by AUDJPY demand and that better Chinese data and we saw an Asian-open gap higher to break through resistance around 0.7100-05 and the larger interest at 0.7120-25.


USDCAD continues to range but capped by CADJPY and firmer oil prices and has failed above 1.3420 again to post lows of 1.3337.


Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.


New temporary management but the struggling Shrimpers of Southend couldn't raise their game back at the hallowed Hall and duly lost 0-2. The relegation battle is well and truly on but we'll keep believing.


Have a good day and week out there one and all.


Interbank Rate 08.30 BST

GBPUSD   1.3070

EURUSD   1.1239

EURGBP   0.8596

GBPEUR   1.1630

GBPAUD   1.8333

GBPCAD   1.7435

GBPZAR   18.6560

GBPHKD   10.1332

USDJPY   111.02

USDZAR   14.2692

EURJPY   124.77

GBPJPY   145.09

AUDUSD   0.7130

EURCHF   1.1180

EURHKD   8.7130

USDCAD   1.3340

USDCHF   0.9949


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