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  • Mike Paterson

Risk sentiment and month-end flows in play to close the week

Updated: May 4, 2021

Friday 30 April 2021

After yesterday's strong supply of JPY amid the better risk sentiment/higher bond yields we've seen a small retreat in FX pairs but ranging still with USDJPY and USDCHF still finding dip demand. Other core pairs have been capped by the cross flow retreats as some JPY demand returns amid softer risk tones but some further EOM USD selling expected to help underpin particularly versus GBP and EUR.

Jury still definitely out on the Greenback so, as always in these fickle times, be careful with your trading. Pick your preferred entry/exit levels and don't be greedy or over-analyze. Patience a virtue too of course.

GBPUSD: After the test of 1.3975-80 amid the USD and JPY better-risk supply we've capped at 1.3960 and now testing 1.3900 again.EURGBP: Still ranging 0.8675-0.8705 and delicately poised still as core pairs continue to range.GBPJPY: That base at 151.30 now in play again amid the softer risk tone retreat from 152.40. Underpinned core pairs still but rally sellers ever poised amdist the variable/fragile risk sentiment.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but still not getting over greedy with expectation on the retreats. Caution advised still as equally a case for buying dips still atm.

EURUSD: Sellers at 1.2150 duly capping the rally but underpinned still with option interest and potential EOM USD supply.USDJPY: Had a brief look at 109.20-25 amid the JPY selling and USD demand returning yesterday but holding 108.70 in the retreat so far. EURJPY: Sellers poised in the rallies I warned yesterday and we've retreated from 132.30 to 131.70 as they finally prevail as risk sentiment softens and Euro weakens generally. Still underpinned into 131.50.USDCHF: Still holding 0.9080 which I've been highlighting this week as EURUSD retreats but rallies tempered by EURCHF falling back through 1.1000 on softer risk and EUR tones generally but with the SNB ever watchful and ready to help. EURCHF: 1.1000 now being tested as I type but expect some support from the SNB in the retreat

AUDUSD: Capped around 0.7800 this time (where we also have some option interest today) as AUDJPY also topped out at 85.00 and now we dip back into 0.7760. USDCAD: Capped this time at 1.2320 but now holding 1.2270 amid the fimer USD tones and some CADJPY selling/profit-taking.

Southend United travel to Barrow for their penultimate game and a win now essential if we are to keep any hopes alive. Come on you mighty Shrimpers !!!1

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week-end everyone.

Interbank rates: 08.18 BST

GBPUSD 1.3924

EURUSD 1.2108

EURGBP 0.8698

GBPEUR 1.1495

GBPAUD 1.7915

GBPCAD 1.7101

GBPJPY 151.45

GBPZAR 19.9970

GBPHKD 1.2097

USDJPY 108.80

USDZAR 14.3690

EURJPY 131.74

EURCHF 1.0998

EURHKD 9.3845

AUDUSD 0.7768

USDCAD 1.2285

USDCHF 0.9083

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