Risk sentiment still owned by the happy-clappy brigade
14 September 2021
Firmer risk sentiment being seen again as European trading gets underway with some JPY and CHF supply that's underpinning core pairs still as equities, yields and commodities all continue to show show some strength.
Central banks seem in no hurry to taper or react to all the anecdotal evidence of surging inflation, the latest we're-in-no-rush comments coming from RBA Governor Lowe and sending the A$ lower. Markets still looking for FOMC taper by year-end but seemingly that's factored in anyway. US CPI data today at 12.30 GMT might offer further clues.
UK jobs and wages data earlier seemed upbeat but the record 1m job vacancies still casts a shadow and a reminder that any recovery is not going to be straight forward.
As we continue to range remember that patience and discipline in trading are key as ever, and not being greedy.
GBPUSD: A good hold of 1.3800 yesterday and now back up through the pivotal 1.3850-60 are to once again potentially test 1.3880-00. I remain a rally seller while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.
EURGBP: Finding support around 0.8520 again after once more failing to break back up through 0.8550 following the hold of 0.8500. Generally soggy EUR tones helping to underpin GBPUSD. GBPJPY: Support now at 152.20 and breaking up through as I type amid the firmer risk tones. Sellers still poised when risk sentiment fades.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.
EURUSD: 1.1770 provided good support yesterday and a decent bounce to 1.1830 since. 1.1800 now providing support. USDJPY: Range getting ever-tighter after yesterday's hold of 109.90 amid the JPY supply. EURJPY:129.60 became the new base yesterday but rallies limited amid the gnerally soggy EUR tones despite better risk sentiment support. USDCHF: 0.9180 and now 0.9200 providing support again with the SNB ever vigiliant and EURCHF on the rise amid the firmer risk but sellers still poised. EURCHF: Holding 1.0870 now amid the better risk tones and with SNB shadow ever present.
AUDUSD: Holding 0.7330 amid the firmer risk/commodity tones after failing at 0.7380 then pushed lower thanks to those dovish RBA comments.We also have some option interest today at 0.7340 and 0.7300. USDCAD: Good support still coming in at 1.2640 amid the firmer oil/risk tones and hence CADJPY demand after rally capping at 1.2680 this time. Option interest nearby today.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.48 BST