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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Risk sentiment still soggy

Tuesday 17 August 2021

Equities, oil and US treasury yields all on the back foot again and a notable demand for JPY and CHF still helping driving cross pairs lower and helping to cap core pairs.

UK jobs and wages data came in around expectations and showed some general improvement but still difficult to gauge how the economy is faring as we come out of lockdown and hence little impact on GBP so far.

Patience and discipline in trading are key as ever and not being greedy as we continue to range tightly overall. Still some good two-way pips to be had as the jury remains out so picking your moments and levels are more important than ever.

GBPUSD: Bids/support around 1.3830 now given way amid the GBPJPY selling to post lows of 1.3788 and some pips banked again per ongoing strategy and my tweets. I remain a rally seller while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.EURGBP: Supported now at 0.8500 as GBPUSD comes under pressure helped by the GBPJPY selling and now up through 0.8530 as I type. GBPJPY: 151.80 now the cap as the risk-off retreat continues and testing ever lower into 150.50 now.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.

EURUSD: Capping at 1.1800 still but finding support at 1.1760 as we continue to range tightly with cross flows very much making an ongoing impact.USDJPY: 109.00 duly held yesterday as we headed lower on the softer USD and JPY demand and now up through 109.30.EURJPY: 129.00 now providing resistance after holding 128.30 in the extended retreat amid the softer risk tones.USDCHF: Now testing 0.9100 amid the firmer CHF risk-off demand but with the SNB ever vigiliant with EURCHF also in retreat. EURCHF: 1.0760-80 now the resistance as we retreat amid the softer risk CHF demand but with SNB shadow ever present.

AUDUSD: Finding support at 0.7280 in the AUDJPY-led retreat and now looking at 0.7300 with large 0.7330 option interest today casting a shadow still.USDCAD: Found a base at 1.2560 then 1.2580 with softer oil price and CADJPY selling in play still but finding sellers above 1.2620 this morning. Large option contract interest on Thursday casting a shadow.

As we look at trading opportunities it's even more important not to over analyze but trade the price action with discipline and patience. I can help with this in my 1-2-1 sessions and now is the time, more than ever, to get on board with those if you haven't already done so. Contact me to take advantage of currently reduced prices.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.55 BST

GBPUSD 1.3800

EURUSD 1.1771

EURGBP 0.8528

GBPEUR 1.1724

GBPJPY 151.00

GBPCAD 1.7388

GBPHKD 10.6991

GBPZAR 20.5520

USDJPY 109.40

EURJPY 128.81

EURCHF 1.0729

EURHKD 9.1258

AUDUSD 0.7293

USDCAD 1.2617

USDCHF 0.9115

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