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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Risk sentiment wobbly again and US NFPs in focus

Friday 1 November 2019

Risk sentiment is on the back foot with US-China trade talk outcome still uncertain and the Greenback still feeling a little bit of heat post-FOMC as we wait on the key US jobs/wages data today. Meanwhile General Election fever continues to unfold in the UK and markets/traders/analysts continue to assess just how much of a proxy Second Brexit Referendum it will turn out to be.

GBPUSD remains underpinned between 1.2920-50 for the moment helped by USD supply but failing to rally too far.Caution needed both sides of the coin still with decent sell interest at 1.2980 and 1.3000 still. EURGBP also tightly bound in a 0.8580-0.8650 range.GBPJPY also continues to see good two-way trading amid the varying GBP/risk sentiment combo.

I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit uncertainty but always happy to buy back in the dips still. Still a decent case for GBP longs in the dips if this tight range continues. In essence the general uncertainty and can kicking continues and that's still Pound negative. Current price action supports longs but equally now sellers remain poised.

EURUSD remains underpinned but helped by the softer USD and amid more large option expiry interest today at 1.1100 (EUR 1.2bln), 1.1150 (3.4bln of which 2.4bln are calls), 1.1175 (900m) and 1.1200 (5.4bln) so can expect a contained range still. USDJPY has duly fallen through 108.00 on the softer USD/risk tones before running into bids/support at 107.80-85 again.USDCHF has slid back a little further as EURUSD remains supported and USD falls with EURCHF still underpinned and now posted fresh recent lows of 0.9854.

AUDUSD has found a little support from the generally softer USD but also supply from the risk-off AUDJPY selling but the pair has large (A$1.4bln) in expiries at 0.6900 today to keep range contained. USDCAD has found itself tightly bound amid the USD/risk variables too.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries that you might need some further help with.

So tomorrow is nearly here and England's rugby union World Cup ambitions are close to fruition. Come on boys !!!!! Oh and good luck as always to the Shrimpers of Southend who face the long-haul up to Sunderland but very much the supporting cast tomorrow.

Have a good day/weekend out there one and all.

Interbank Rate 08.22 GMT

GBPUSD   1.2968

EURGBP   0.8606

EURUSD   1.1161

GBPEUR   1.1617

GBPAUD   1.8765

GBPCAD   1.7041

GBPJPY   139.97

GBPZAR   19.5817

GBPHKD   10.0517

USDJPY   107.96

USDZAR   15.1178

EURJPY   120.47

EURCHF   1.1000

EURHKD   8.6526

AUDUSD   0.6909

USDCAD   1.3145

USDCHF   0.9857

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