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  • Mike Paterson

Roller coaster risk ride as US-China trade talks play out

Thursday 10 October 2019

Brexit aside, the US-China trade talks were always going to cast a big shadow this week and as they get underway we've already had negative and positive reports of progress and the algos have duly feasted, albeit in tight ranges still. Risk sentiment has enjoyed a roller coaster ride therefore and the jury remains out still as I type. US CPI at 12.30 GMT among a plethora of global data out today too.


Meanwhile the Brexit debacle continues with the algos equally well fed. Today Varadkhar meets Johnson amid the varying degree of noise from both sides and we can expect more headlines but little by way of real change.


GBPUSD found support around recent lows at 1.2200 again on the initial negative reports from US-China trade talks having spiked sharply to 1.2291 in the morning on more Brexit bs. Still being pulled around by GBPJPY risk-on/risk-off but failing to get back over offers at 1.2250 atm. EURGBP has remained underpinned on the generally softer Pound and now helped by EURUSD breaking up through 1.1000 and we've now been up to 0.9010 (GBPEUR down to 1.1098). GBPJPY has seen good two-way business again with another failure at 131.80 resulting in another retreat to test 130.80-85.


I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Rinse and repeat.Still no reason to change my view any time soon as the current madness plays out but caution as ever is appropriate. Just ignore the noise, identify the trading ranges, and let the algos do the work. Lots of UK data in the mix shortly at 08.30 GMT then Carney speech at 09.20 GMT.


EURUSD has finally broken 1.1000 helped by some risk-on EURJPY demand and we've been up to post 1.1019 so far.

USDJPY has enjoyed lots of two-way business between 107.00 and 107.80 amid all the variable risk plays.USDCHF continues to find dip demand at 0.9900 but has retreated from 0.9964 as EURUSD breaks higher and EURCHF trades tightly and risk sentiment remains variable.


AUDUSD held 0.6700 on a further fall helped by some AUDJPY supply initially but then we saw both pairs rally on the better risk sentiment and has posted highs of 0.6757. USDCAD continues to trade 1.3300-50 with CADJPY in play both sides.


Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.


Have a good day out there one and all.


Interbank Rate 08.30 BST

GBPUSD   1.2232

EURGBP   0.9006

EURUSD   1.1017

GBPEUR   1.1102

GBPAUD   1.8134

GBPCAD   1.6283

GBPNZD   1.9639

GBPJPY   131.35

GBPZAR   18.4736

GBPHKD   9.4842

USDJPY   107.38

USDZAR   15.0970

EURJPY   118.31

EURCHF   1.0927

EURHKD   8.5428

AUDUSD   0.6747

USDCAD   1.3311

USDCHF   0.9918


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