Same old scene as another month closes
Tuesday 30 April 2019
It may be the end of another month (where is 2019 disappearing to so rapidly?) but nothing out there is changing in real terms anytime soon. Weaker Chinese data has given rise to some risk-off JPY and CHF demand again but all within recent ranges. Month-end flows today will be in play and fixes over the past two days suggest some US$ supply.
GBPUSD fell to test 1.2900 helped by some month-end EURGBP demand from the 0.8620 area only to rally back above 1.2950 as EURGBP found sellers above 0.8650 and EURUSD burst through 1.1165-70. Mixed tones coming out of the cross-party Brexit talks as expected. Some GBPJPY supply on the latest risk-off selling has also helped to cap rallies.
EURGBP held 0.8620 bids with the usual month-end demand helping as I've been banging on about. Sellers poised above 0.8650 have capped rallies so far so we'll see today if any final buying to be done.
I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid the Brexit uncertainty/indecision. Plenty more noise to come in the weeks ahead and the algos will continue to feed off the headlines but I don't think we're going anywhere in a hurry just yet. BOE policy announcement on Thursday in the mix this week.
EURUSD eventually broke up through 1.1165-70 offers/res on the generally softer USD and EURGBP demand but has since failed into 1.1200 as expected helped by some EURJPY supply post-Chinese data.Higher CPI data this morning out of Spain and Germany helping to keep a bid underneath it tho. USDJPY has duly retreated on the softer USD/risk sentiment combo and has now tested the 111.30 bids again.USDCHF remains underpinned but capped again above 1.0200 as EURCHF found sellers again above 1.1400 amid the general EUR retreat and wobbly risk but finding dip support around 1.1350 again.
AUDUSD had a wobble lower on the weaker Chinese data but has once again found some decent dip support into 0.7030 while USDCAD remains tightly bound, staging a small rally as oil prices dipped but then retreating on a firmer oil/softer USD combo.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.
Have a good day out there one and all.
Interbank Rate 07.48 BST