Softer Greenback as a new month gets underway.
Monday 1 June 2020
After all the month-end fun and games on which hopefully I gave you a good steer both here and Twitter we've seen a weaker USD in Asia and early Europe but with some degree of risk-on sentiment returning as markets eeemingly shrug off the US-China spat, US riots and COVID 19 fallout. Wrongly in my book and I still see fragile risk-sentiment overall but who am I to judge? lol
Reports that the OPEC+ oil meeting will be brought forward to 4 June, and some better than expected headline EU manufacturing PMI data out this morning with more to come from the US later today. France, Germany and Switzerland on Whitsun holiday but London fully open.
Too many ups n down in FX pairs since Friday morning to summarize here but here's the gist.
GBPUSD found support in the key 1.2280 area after the month-end buying capped at 1.2390 and since risen on the softer USD to test strong offers/resistance at 1.2420 and some re-sells duly placed..Still some dip demand to be expected though but good two-way business to be had again I think. EURGBP failed at 0.9050 (GBPEUR 1.1050) and now down through 0.8980 with GBP demand generally and EURUSD failing at 1.1150.GBPJPY finally broke up through the strong line at 133.00 but has seen good two-way business in a 132.60-133.60 range.
I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. Brexit trade talk spats with EU still in play.
USDJPY failed above 107.80 again but support at 107.30 evident again with larger still at 107.00 while EURJPY has been finding more sellers 120.00 and now dipping again below 119.50 on softer risk as Europe gets underway but decent dip demand expected for the moment.EURUSD is failing around 1.1150 after its strong month-end demand and retreat then further rally in Asia but decent demand now at 1.1100.USDCHF failed at 0.9650 and now back through 0.9600 as EURCHF drops back through 1.0700 and that remains a decent resistance area. Still expect SNB in the dips though.
AUDUSD enjoyed the month-end USD supply and more since to post 0.6773 but falling on another reality check as I type with China still casting a shadow.USDCAD failed above 1.3820 and fallen to test 1.3680 amid the softer Greenback but rallying now to look at 1.3720-30 offers amid the variable oil and risk combo.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.35 BST