Softer US Dollar as Jackson Hole beckons.
Thursday 25 August 2022
Firmer risk/softer Greenback tones as markets wait on the Jackson Hole symposium which gets underway today. Oil price underpinned by a number of other OPEC ministers issuing statements supporting Saudi Arabia’s comments about cutting supply.
Jury will remain out and the second-guessing will continue whatever's said at JH so, as always, don't over-analyse but be ready with your preferred levels/strategy, place orders and let the algos do the heavy work. Discipline is key as always.
GBPUSD: Ranging still with support coming in at 1.1780-85 and rallies capping around 1.1865 and re-sells now placed at 1.1850 per ongoing strategy. I will stand poised for re-sells as we continue to range with patience a virtue still. EURGBP: Tightly bound still with two-way business still envisaged. GBPJPY: Currently capped at 162.00 after holding 161.40 this time as risk tones firm. The jury remains out and we can expect some fragile price action still.
EURUSD: Holding 0.9960 then 0.9980 as USD supply returns along with some general EUR cross-pair demand but capped at 1.0035 Rally sellers including me still ever-poised. Large option contract interest 1.0000-20 in play. USDJPY: Still ranging with a cap at 137.20 but holding 137.40 so far in the retreat. EURJPY: Capped into 137.00 after a good hold at 136.40.Sellers poised still whenever sentiment turns as I've been warning. USDCHF: Capping at 0.9680 then 0.9660 again in the USD sell-off but tempered by some EURCHF support with the SNB ever vigilant. CHF demand still notable overall helped by rate hike expectations.EURCHF: 0.9620 resistance now broken after a solid hold of 0.9560 amid expected SNB smoothing and general EUR demand but the inherent CHF demand still capping rallies too.
AUDUSD: Still finding good support around 0.6900 before the pair was making the most of the USD supply/AUDJPY demand to post 0.6990 as I type. GBPAUD capping at 1.7100 and now testing 1.6950 as AUDUSD rally outstrips GBPUSD. NZDUSD posting 0.6250 as I type amid the softer USD tones after holding 0.6180 again in Asia. GBPNZD testing 1.8950 after failure above 1.9050 with rally sellers still poised. USDCAD: Capping at 1.3020 then 1.2980 again amid the firmer oil tones/softer USD and now testing 1.2900. Expecting some two-way business overall though still amid the fickle variables.
Let's continue to be careful out there.
Interbank rates: 08.48 BST