Some USD supply noted but still underpinned
Friday 26 April 2019
After those May 2017 highs on the USD index we've seen a little retracement, even with better US Durable Goods data, and that suggests the recent move has been over-cooked a little but generally the mood hasn't changed that much. USDJPY and USDCHF have been capped as much by fragile risk sentiment as anything else which I've warned about for a while now.
GBPUSD fell further to post lows of 1.2866 before retracing to test 1.2920-30 resistance. EURGBP selling on the general EUR supply continues to help hold up the retreat but the usual month-end demand has also helped cap Cable rallies again helped by fresh GBPJPY and GBPCHF supply amid the fragile risk appetite.EURGBP has been tightly bound after another retreat into 0.8630-35 as EURUSD continued to fall but remains underpinned with month-end demand ever nearer on the horizon. .
I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid the Brexit debacles and general USD demand currently prevailing. Plenty more noise to come in the weeks ahead and the algos will continue to feed off the headlines.
EURUSD has fallen further to take out decent support/demand around 1.1130 but stalled at 1.1118 so far ahead of barrier option interest at 1.1100.USDJPY has duly fallen amid the risk-off sentiment and ahead of numerous long Golden Week holiday flash crash warnings. We've seen a nice retreat to finally break down through 111.65 and 111.50 to test those stronger bids/support at 111.30 but still in place. USDCHF remains underpinned but capped as EURCHF found sellers again amid the general EUR retreat and wobbly risk but finding dip support around 1.1350 this time.
AUDUSD has retreated further to take out the 0.7000 bids and barrier option interest but failed into the next level of support at 0.6980 and posted rally-highs of 0.7034 so far. USDCAD has retreated to test 1.3460 from those 1.3520-30 highs post-BOC helped by some USD supply but steadied since with oil also making its mind up again for the moment.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.
Tomorrow we're all heading up North to cheer on the mighty Shrimpers in what essentially is another must-win game at Rochdale. Only one more after this one, home against promotion-chasing Sunderland,and it's definitely going to the wire.
Have a good day/week-end out there one and all.
Interbank Rate 08.02 BST