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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Steady as she goes again as markets continue to second-guess

Thursday 22 November 2018

US equities yesterday closed on the back foot and we've seen a little lower adjustment on the European opening so risk sentiment is still variable at best. Today sees the start of the US Thanksgiving holiday so we may continue to trade in tight ranges but less liquidity can often produce greater volatility.Algos are still at their desks though and not eating turkey as we wait on any further news-bombs/global developments to set them off.

GBPUSD has continued to trade tightly in a range of 1.2765-1.2815 albeit on the back foot still as May attempts to find a Brexit solution that will please her own party and the EU even if,sadly,not the UK public. Immediate offers now at 1.2800 then larger at 1.2820 still then 1.2840-50, 1.2880-85, 1.2900, 1.2920 and 1.2950. Bids/demand building at 1.2765 then 1.2750, 1.2720 and larger at 1.2700 still with more at 1.2680 and larger into 1.2650 behind that.I remain GBP bearish overall and happy to jump on rallies then buy back in the dips while remaining core short, a strategy that continues to work well.

EURGBP has also been tightly bound with both the Euro and Pound falling and rising on the risk/USD sentiment changes.Buyers poised now around 0.8900 then 0.8880 again, 0.8850, 0.8830 and 0.8800 still with sellers still between 0.8920-25 then 0.8950 again.More lined up between 0.8980-00.

EURUSD has nudged back again to post 1.1425 before once again capping with EURJPY and EURCHF trades also in play still.Immediate bids/support at 1.1375-80 again then 1.1350 still and 1.1320,1.1300 with sellers at 1.1420-25, 1.1450 then 1.1475-80 and larger at 1.1500 still.

USDJPY held 112.80 before a quick spike to 113.24 only to retreat below 113.00 once more.Immediate sell interest still at 113.20-25 and 113.50 with bids building at 112.80, then larger at 112.50. I remain a rally seller buying back in the dips.

USDCHF continues to remain underpinned possibly with some SNB smoothing assistance and has held 0.9920 before capping at the 0.9960 offers I highlighted yesterday.EURCHF similarly seems to have a support line around 1.1320 but sellers still poised everytime risk sentiment wobbles.Bids/support now at 1.1320 then 1.1300 and 1.1280 with USDCHF demand at 0.9920 0.9900 and 0.9980.Sellers poised around 1.1350 still then 1.1380 and 1.1400 with USDCHF supply still around 0.9960 then 0.9980 and 1.0000. I'm happy to trade both sides of the price action at the moment in these tight ranges.

AUDUSD climbed back up to test 0.7280 on some softer USD/ more risk-on sentiment only to retreat below 0.7250 once again.Bids/support now between 0.7220-30 then larger at 0.7200 and 0.7180 still with sellers lurking between 0.7250-60 then larger at 0.7280 and 0.7300 still. USDCAD has failed above 1.3300 to fall but hold 1.3220 where I identified bids in yesterday's update but still suspect to oil price volatility. Bids building at 1.3220 then 1.3200, 1.3180 and 1.3160 with sellers poised now around 1.3280, 1.3300 then 1.3320 and 1.3350 still.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.

Last night I went to cast an eye over the latest crop of talented SUFC youngsters in the FA Youth Cup. They lost 2-0 but were always in the game and there's definitely reasons to be cheerful moving forward.

Have a good day out there one and all, and Happy Thanksgiving wherever you're celebrating it.

Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

Interbank Rate 07.50 GMT

GBPUSD 1.2782

EURUSD 1.1398

EURGBP 0.8917

GBPEUR 1.1212

USDJPY 113.04

USDCAD 1.3239

USDCHF 0.9940

GBPAUD 1.7648

GBPCAD 1.6922

GBPCHF 1.2705

GBPHKD 9.0992

EURHKD 8.8387

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