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  • Mike Paterson

Steady start to a new week

Monday 22 November 2021

A new week but same story at the moment as we see variable USD tones still but gently firmer overall and we've seen some steady recoveries in yields , equities and oil since Friday's wobble on the EU COVD lockdown scares. Gold is back below 1850 as risk appetite firms generally.


Nothing much changed since Friday on the EU Covid front and still casting a shadow as cases continue to rise but the shakeout has least breathed a little fresh air/reality into these overblown complacent markets that we've seen in recent times.


It's still a case of "what next" as markets and traders continue to second-guess the central banks everywhere with this renewed fragile risk sentiment lurking amid rising COVID cases in Europe and political unease around Ukraine, Taiwan and elsewhere. A fragile world out there still.


GBPUSD: Support at 1.3400 prevailing on Friday but equally finding 1.3480 a step too far on the bounce.Some pips banked again in the retreat and some rally re-sells duly placed per ongoing strategy. The pair does remain underpinned by GBPJPY and softer EURGBP overall but rally sellers, including me, ever poised. EURGBP: Still dangerous to bottom-pick at the moment amid the general EUR supply as we continue to range 0.8380-0.8420 amid the uncertainty. GBPJPY: Sellers at 153.60 now prevailing after Friday's hold of 152.50 amid the variable risk and USD tones.


I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side albeit still against the grain currently so being patient as ever. These markets are ever-fickle so good/tight position management essential.


EURUSD: Support at 1.1250 now still in place but equally sellers prevailing at 1.1300-20 amid all the uncertainty and firmer USD tones generally. USDJPY: A good hold of 113.60 then 113.80 on Friday but failing above 114.20 amid the fragile risk tones helping to cap USD rallies. EURJPY: 128.50 now providing support but with rally sellers still poised as I've been warning, this time at 129.00. USDCHF: Support still coming in around 0.9260 with the SNB ever vigilant now that 1.0500 has finally broken on EURCHF but sellers around 0.9300 as the Euro remains soft overall. EURCHF: 1.0500 finally broke on Friday amid the EU Covid lockdown wobbles after those sellers in the rallies helped put a cap on it. I posted here in my update " Beware a break of 1.0490-00 that will trigger stops". I hope you took heed.


AUDUSD: 0.7250 support broken by Friday's risk-off AUDJPY selling but next line at 0.7220-25 holding so far. Pips duly banked in the retreat again after I warned here "Beware stops being triggered if/when 0.7250 breaks" so I hope you took note. USDCAD: 1.2600-20 now holding amid firmer USD tones but failing around 1.2660 amid rising oil prices and hence some CADJPY demand. Some options in play today.


Sad to report yet another defeat for Southend on Friday night but even sadder to learn of the death of one of my early heroes Gary Moore. A true Shrimper who gave his all every week. Something a lot of our senior players could learn from right now....


Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.


Have a good week


Interbank rates: 08.55 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3426

EURUSD 1.1280

EURGBP 0.8400

GBPEUR 1.1902

GBPJPY 153.23

GBPCAD 1.6947

GBPZAR 21.1346

GBPHKD 10.4581

USDJPY 114.12

EURJPY 128.71

EURCHF 1.0465

EURHKD 8.7868

AUDUSD 0.7254

USDCAD 1.2635

USDCHF 0.9280


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