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  • Mike Paterson

The uncertainty increases

Tuesday 22 February 2022

Rollercoaster riding still the theme with Ukraine continuing to dominate the headlines and Putin duly upping the stakes causing a risk-off retreat in equities and another grab of JPY and CHF sending cross and core pairs lower. We're seeing a reversal of the thin-liquidity extended Asian moves this morning as I type but the uncertainty remains.

Gold had a look at the key 1915-20 area before retreating below 1900 but remains underpinned as does oil. The Euro gave up its early gains and came uncer pressure across the board yesterday on geograpical proximity weakness and a tumble in the DAX but has recovered some poise this morning.

The guessing game will continue and keep the headline-algos jumping on hot coals still. Meanwhile conjecture over Central Bank rate hikes also continues to add more uncertainty into the mix. As ever, a case of not over-analysing or second-guessing but keeping your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs and identify ranges and what levels present value for money.Discipline is key in these whippy markets. If in doubt, stay out.

GBPUSD: Duly finding a good hold of 1.3550 but rally sellers still poised. EURGBP: A good hold of 0.8300-10 after that failure through 0.8350 amid the general EUR retreat and now back up to 0.8340 but with sellers poised agaiin. Mixed risk helping to contain as the uncertainty remains.

GBPJPY: Finding support at 155.50 in the latest retreat with core pair dip demand notable. Caution still required atm amid risk-off/on uncertainty. Sellers poised 156.20-30 next if we ho

EURUSD: A good hold of 1.1280 again and some pips banked and now back up to 1.1330 amid some general EUR demand but sellers poised 1.1345-65 amid the mixed risk and USD tones. USDJPY: Support around 114.80 finally gave way before finding the next tranche of support at 114.50 a step too far with possible month-end demand helping.EURJPY: Finding demand/support around 129.50 and now back up through 130.00 but sellers poised amid the uncertainty and variable EUR sentiment currently being seen.

USDCHF: 0.9150 support notable yesterday as EURCHF tumbled with SNB ever vigilant but sellers now poised 0.9200-20. Caution required as I've been warning. EURCHF: A solid retreat yesterday amid some general EUR supply and CHF risk-off demand but finding a base eventually at 1.0340 and a straight line rally to look at 1.0400 as I type.

AUDUSD: Good two-way business between 0.7170-0.7220 as the rollercoaster risk ride continues with that shadow of large 0.7200 option interest today in play. USDCAD: Capping above 1.2760 again but finding support at 1.2720-30 still amid the oil and risk uncertainty. Decent option interest lurking today.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.45 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3579

EURUSD 1.1322

EURGBP 0.8338

GBPEUR 1.1993

GBPJPY 156.00

GBPCAD 1.7300

GBPCHF 1.2470

GBPZAR 20.6330

GBPHKD 10.5788

USDJPY 114.88

EURJPY 130.05

EURCHF 1.0393

EURHKD 8.8208

AUDUSD 0.7203

USDCAD 1.2742

USDCHF 0.9178

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