Tight ranges as jury remains out.
Thursday 15 September 2022
RIP Queen Elizabeth II
Long live the King
Yesterday's US PPI data did little to rattle any cages after Tuesday's CPI-led fall-out and we're seeing limited moves across the board as the second-guessing continues with both US Fed and BOE giving their latest policy decisions next week.
FX pairs have been tightly bound with equity markets flatlining too. USDJPY rallied on comments out of Japan about limited tools to stem JPY weakness. Gold has taken another fall through $1700 to test $1685 and Oil also heading lower again as I type. US retail sales and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index amongst the data out today. Ukraine/Russia war still a very large elephant in the room.
Conjecture remains in these ever-fickle markets so don't over-analyse but be ready with your preferred levels/strategy. Look for appropriate risk verus reward. Discipline is key as always but equally hesitation can often ruin a great idea.
GBPUSD: Capped into 1.1600 yesterday but holding 1.1500 in the retreat so far. Patience a virtue still but I prefer the rally-sell side and ever-poised. EURGBP: Tightly bound still between 0.8640-70 as core pairs move in unison. Two-way business expected still as jury remains out.GBPJPY: Capping now at 165.75 after the solid hold of 164.75. I still think we can expect some two-way price action amid the fragile global backstory.
EURUSD: Finding decent support at 0.9950 still after failing above 1.0000. Rally sellers including me still poised. Some option interest in play again today nearby.USDJPY: Capped at 143.80-00 now but finding support into 142.80 again before the comment-led rally and some general USD demand. Definitely expecting more 2-way business.EURJPY: Support now around 142.50 in the retreats and now testing 143.50 as we range tightly still. USDCHF:Holding 0.9615-20 as I type after 0.9640 failure as EURUSD and EURCHF both range. Some natural CHF demand still but SNB will be keeping an eye on matters.EURCHF: Still holding 0.9580 abut struggling into 0.9620 helped by some general CHF demand but SNB seemingly smoothing downstairs.
AUDUSD: Understandably pausing for breath after Tuesday's rapid retreat nd ranging 0.6730-70 for the moment. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side but should see decent 2-way down here. GBPAUD finding 1.7050 area a base still but sellers capping at 1.7100 wih core pairs going nowhere in a hurry. NZD flatlining between 0.5990-0.6010 for the moment. GBPNZD basing at 1.9150 still but capping at 1.9220.USDCAD: Also tightly bound and support coming in at 1.3150 amid general USD demand and oil price retreat. Expecting some two-way business overall still amid the fickle variables.
Let's continue to be careful out there.
Interbank rates: 08.36 BST