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  • Mike Paterson

Turbulent times continue

Monday 28 February 2022

Peace talks, Putin's request to step up nuclear alert status, Kiyv curfew lifted, continuation of Russian agression/Ukrainian resistance, sanctions increased, rouble falling 22%, Russian interest rates hiked to 20% from 10.5% and we're currently seeing a whole range of fallout, yet somehow maybe some positives too.

Amid the mixed risk and USD tones Gold and Oil are once again off their highs and both have seen another decent retreat but remain underpinned. Month-end USD demand flows adding some buying into the mix, particularly USDJPY still. Meanwhile conjecture over Central Bank rate hikes also continues.

GBPUSD: Tightly bound 1.3300-1.3400 amid the mixed tones but it's all relative ofc given recent moves. EURGBP: The uncertain times have produced a break above 0.8380-85 only to fail above 0.8400 and fall back to 0.8345. Support 0.8330-50 still for the moment.GBPJPY: Finding support at 153.50 again but failing at 154.60 so far in the subsequent rally. Caution still required atm amid Ukraine uncertainty.

EURUSD: A good hold of 1.1120 in the latest retreat after a gap lower from 1.1270 and now 1.1176. Have to consider cross flows in an core pair play.USDJPY: A solid rally from the 115.00-20 support area on the Asian opening to test 115.80 amid the general USD demand and some month-end flow still that I've been warning about. EURJPY: Found demand/support around 128.00 again and rally sellers prevailing at 129.50 still in the relief rally.USDCHF: Sellers at 0.9280 still helping to cap but support duly coming in at 0.9220-30 as I warned on Friday with SNB never far away but sellers will remain poised amid the fragile backdrop.EURCHF: Asian gap saw a fall from 1.0420 to test 1.0300 as risk-off CHF prevailed in thin liquidity with SNB still keeping a close watch and 1.0320 finding a few bids but sellers poised 1.0380-00 again.

AUDUSD: The risk-off AUDJPY and AUDCHF supply along with the general USD demand saw a gap lower into the 0.7150 support area a failure into 0.7250 on Friday. Now testing 0.7200 again as I type. USDCAD: 1.2800-20 capping the latest rally but equally 1.2760 still holding the retreat helped by USD demand and oil off its highs again. Good two-way business still expected.

Another point earned by the mighty Shrimpers on Saturday against equally in-form Solihull. 11 unbeaten now as our remarkable and very welcome run continues.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 07.56 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3375

EURUSD 1.1188

EURGBP 0.8364

GBPEUR 1.1954

GBPJPY 154.48

GBPCAD 1.7080

GBPCHF 1.2360

GBPZAR 20.6598

GBPHKD 10.4191

USDJPY 115.50

EURJPY 129.22

EURCHF 1.0356

EURHKD 8.7160

AUDUSD 0.7201

USDCAD 1.2770

USDCHF 0.9257

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