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  • Mike Paterson

UK and EU agree Brexit "deal" but it's far from all over

Monday 26 November 2018

This week-end saw the EU and UK sign off on a Brexit Withdrawal Agreement but it's far from being a deal per se with plenty of negotiating work to be done between the two parties amid the chances of May getting it passed through parliament becoming ever thinner.

GBPUSD has been suitably unimpressed by all the hullabaloo and has traded 1.2795-1.2845 since the Asian opening. Immediate offers now at 1.2850 and 1.2880 then larger at 1.2900, 1.2920 and 1.2950. Bids/demand building around 1.2800, 1.2780 1.2765 then 1.2750, 1.2720 and larger at 1.2700 still.I remain GBP bearish overall and happy to jump on rallies then buy back in the dips while remaining core short, a strategy that continues to work well. Today BOE governor Carney shares a platform with former US Fed Chairman Greenspan at 18.30 GMT in a launch for the latter's book so we might get some headlines but I'm not holding my breath.

EURGBP has also been tightly bound and the jury remains out but we do need to factor in the usual month-end BUBA demand in play this week.Decent buy interest still poised around 0.8830 and 0.8800 with sellers still at 0.8880, 0.8900 and 0.8920.

EURUSD has been in general retreat-mode since my last update but held 1.1320 where I highlighted some bids on Friday.Immediate demand/support now at 1.1350 then 1.1320 and 1.1300 still with sell interest building at 1.1380 and 1.1400 then 1.1420-25 again, 1.1450, 1.1475-80 and larger at 1.1500 still.

USDJPY dipped below 112.80 but has since rallied on some general USD demand and a little risk-on sentiment to now post 113.33 as I type. Bids building now at 113.00 then 112.75-80 and larger at 112.50 still with offers into 113.50 then larger between 113.80-00. I remain a rally seller buying back in the dips.

USDCHF still remains underpinned possibly with some SNB smoothing assistance and has held 0.9930 again and now 0.9960 after capping at 0.9985.EURCHF similarly held around 1.1300 but sellers still poised.Bids/support now at 1.1310 then 1.1300 and 1.1280 with USDCHF demand now at 0.9960, 0.9930 and 0.9900.Sellers poised between 1.1350-60 still then 1.1380 and 1.1400 with USDCHF supply now between 0.9980-85 and 1.0000 still. I'm happy to trade both sides of the price action at the moment in these tight ranges.

AUDUSD has fallen back again to test 0.7220-30 with larger bids at 0.7200 and 0.7180 still in place too and rallied to post 0.7270. Sellers now lurking at 0.7280 and 0.7300 then 0.7320 still. USDCAD held 1.3180 before rallying but has fallen back from 1.3260 to 1.3190 as I type with oil prices rising steadily from Friday's lows.Buyers lined up at 1.3180 still then 1.3160 and 1.3130 with sellers poised now around 1.3230, 1.3250, then 1.3280 and 1.3300 still.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.

On Saturday the currently less than mighty Shrimpers returned to league duty at Wimbledon in real need of points but failed miserably in possibly the worst display in a long long while the current shambles continues seemingly on and off the pitch. Grrrrrrrrrr.

Hey ho, have a good week out there one and all.

Interbank Rate 07.23 GMT GBPUSD   1.2811 EURUSD   1.1358 EURGBP   0.8868 GBPEUR   1.1277 USDJPY   113.25 USDCAD   1.3201 USDCHF   0.9970 GBPAUD   1.7655 GBPCAD   1.6920 GBPCHF   1.2779 GBPHKD   9.9324 EURHKD   8.8076


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