Ukraine crisis still stealing the headlines
Tuesday 15 February 2022
Wobbly risk sentiment generally in the past 24 hours over concerns that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent but we've just seen a sharp spike higher for equities and risk after Russian news agency reports that it will be returnning some of its troops back to their bases following completed drills. Oil has fallen back sharply to $91.62 from $93.77 and Gold down to $1867 from $1879. JPY and CHF seling notable too underpinning cross pairs and their cores.
A case of blink and you miss it atm as the uncertainty continues. It's not for us to determine what the outcome over Ukraine will be but the guessing game will continue I'm sure. I'm just warning not to put all your eggs or indeed egos in one basket. Meanwhile conjecture over Central Bank rate hikes continues to add more uncertainty into the mix.
As ever, a case of not over-analysing or second-guessing but keeping your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs and identify ranges and what levels present value for money. Patience invariably a virtue but don't confuse patience with being stubborn either in entry or exit.
GBPUSD: A good hold of 1.3500 yesterday, making my buy-backs even more prudent, and then 1.3520 before the risk-on jump just now to test 1.3560 as I type. EURGBP: Finding support around 0.8350 still but equally finding sellers 0.8360-80 still as the uncertainty remains. GBPJPY: Found support at 155.30-50 then 156.00 and now testing 156.75 making yesterday's core pair buy-backs in the retreat prudent.Cuation required atm amid risk-off/on uncertainty.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side but being patient as ever.
EURUSD: A good hold of 1.1280 yesterday having chewed through 1.1300 support before a rally this morning to test 1.1350 but capped by risk-on EUR supply. USDJPY: Duly found support around 115.00 making my pips banked prudent and now testing 115.60-80 resistance again. EURJPY: Risk-on JPY supply winning at the moment as we rally to 131.20 after a solid hold of 130.50.
USDCHF: 0.9220-30 support line still holding after a failure above 0.9270. SNB ever vigilant but rally sellers poised too. EURCHF: Holding 1.0450 still with SNB shadow cast and now rallying as CHF supply returns but sellers poised into 1.0500-20.
AUDUSD: Some risk-on AUDJPY and AUDCHF demand this morning helping to lift to test 0.7160 and the AUD demand outstripping GBP as I type to send GBPAUD lower to test 1.8950. USDCAD: Capping at 1.2780 and now 1.2750 on the firmer-risk CADJPY demand but retreat tempered by lower oil price. Large option interest today in play for sure.
As we look at trading opportunities it's even more important not to over analyze but trade the price action with discipline and patience. I can help with this in my 1-2-1 sessions and now is the time, more than ever, to get on board with those if you haven't already done so. Contact me (firstname.lastname@example.org) to take advantage of currently reduced prices.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.12 GMT